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Strength
In 4Q24, BBNI booked solid loan and savings growth of respectively 11.6% YoY and 11.0% YoY, driven mainly by corporate clients; 4Q24 LAR improved to 10.3% vs. 11.8% in 3Q24, primarily due to additional write-offs of IDR 5.4tn
Opportunity
The 100% DHE policy (current: 30%) will bring additional liquidity for BBNI, given that export proceeds account for 13% of the bank’s FX deposits (USD 1.3bn); lower interest rate ahead could ease NPL pressure and provide buying opportunities
Weakness
4Q24 LDR rose to 96.3% (3Q24: 95.5%), while CoF increased 5bps QoQ amid liquidity challenges; CoC jumped 46% QoQ due to additional provisions booked for Sritex Group (IDR 3.3tn), the largest amongst Indonesia’s corporate banks
Threat
BBNI’s NIM (4.2% in FY24) could fall to around 4% in FY25, as CoF remains a key challenge due to persistently high SRBI yields, prolonged elevated US interest rates, and slowing M2 growth; tight liquidity may lead to slower loan growth
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