Unparalleled Funding Franchise

Retain BUY with TP of IDR 8,600 (3.4x 2026F PBV) on solid funding franchise. BBCA’s management continues to execute well on its transaction banking, CASA-led funding strategy, and corporate franchise, underpinning steady earnings growth. Looking ahead, management guides for 2026F loan growth of 10-11%, NIM of 5.4-5.6%, and credit cost of 40-50 bps, versus FY25 loan growth of 7.7% YoY, NIM at 5.7%, and credit cost at 42 bps. While sustained competition for top-tier borrowers and lower asset yields remain near-term risks, these are offset by BBCA’s dominant CASA base, disciplined cost control, and solid fee momentum. Thus, we maintain BUY on BBCA with TP of IDR 8,600, implying 3.4x 2026F PBV and supported by ROE sustainability above 20% (Figure 3).

1Q26 result expectations: Net profit +6.3% QoQ, +6.3% YoY. Looking ahead, we expect BBCA to book 1Q26 net profit of IDR15 tn (+6.3% QoQ, +6.3% YoY). In 4Q25, BBCA posted attributable net profit of IDR 14.1 tn (-1.7% QoQ, +2.7% YoY), bringing FY25 earnings to IDR 57.5 tn (+4.9% YoY), broadly in line with our number (100.5%) and consensus (99.8%). Quarterly softness was driven mainly by seasonally higher opex, while FY25 NII rose 4.1% YoY to IDR 85.4 tn and PPOP increased 7.4% YoY to IDR 75.3 tn. 4Q25 NIM edged down 10 bps QoQ to 5.6%, reflecting declining earning-asset yields amid intense corporate competition, while non-interest income improved 1.0% QoQ to IDR 6.9 tn on stronger 4Q25 fees and commissions which rose +10.5% QoQ to IDR 5.7 tn.

Strong liquidity in FY26 supported by accelerating CASA. We anticipate liquidity to remain ample in 2026F (LDR: 82.2%), backed by BBCA’s deposit franchise and transaction-led ecosystem. In FY25, CASA expanded 13.1% YoY to IDR 1,045 tn, lifting the CASA ratio to 84.6%, while total deposits climbed 10.2% YoY to IDR 1,249 tn. FY25 loans grew 7.7% YoY (+5.2% QoQ), led by corporate (+11.5% YoY) and commercial segments, while consumer lending remained stable. Digital channels continued to anchor low-cost funding, with transaction volumes in FY25 accounting for ~99% of total activity and mobile banking penetration deepened across retail and SME customers, reinforcing structural CASA advantages.

Assets quality resilience; strong buffers amid normalized credit costs. Going forward, we forecast assets quality to remain stable in 2026 (FY26F NPL: 1.6%). In 4Q25, BBCA’s gross NPL ratio declined to 1.7% from 2.1% in 3Q25, while LAR improved to 4.8% and NPL coverage strengthened to 184%. FY25 credit cost stood at 42 bps, within management’s guidance range, reflecting conservative underwriting and proactive risk management. Capital remained robust with CET1 at 29.2% and total CAR at 30.4%, providing ample capacity to support growth while absorbing potential macro volatility into FY26.