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Daily Report

31 July 2023

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Bank of Japan kejutkan pasar global

Pasar obligasi global, terutama di Asia dilanda aksi jual Jumat lalu (28/7) setelah bank sentral Jepang (BOJ) mengumumkan kenaikan batas rentang perdagangan imbal hasil (yield) JGB 10Y menjadi ±1% (lihat fixed income news). Aksi jual tersebut menyebabkan kenaikan yield 10Y JGB dan Bund masing-masing sebesar 12 dan 2 bps menjadi 0.57% dan 2.49%. Peristiwa ini juga berdampak langsung pada pasar obligasi domestik. Yield INDOGB naik untuk seluruh tenor masing-masing sebesar 3 bps menjadi 6.07% (2Y), 5 bps menjadi 6.01% (5Y) dan 4 bps menjadi 6.29% (10Y). Yield INDON 10Y mengalami kenaikan paling tinggi sebesar 9 bps menjadi 4.91%. Akan tetapi, yield 10Y UST turun -5 bps menjadi 3.95% akibat rilis data inflasi PCE yang lebih baik dari konsensus (lihat global economic news). Kami menduga efek kejutan BOJ masih akan berlangsung minggu ini yang ditandai dengan kenaikan yield 10Y JGB hingga 0.7-0.9%. Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10Y akan ikut naik hari ini ke rentang 6.3-6.4%. Rupiah berpotensi kembali terdepresiasi menuju rentang IDR 15,100-15,200 per USD. Akan tetapi, depresiasi nilai tukar Asia hanya akan bersifat sementara hingga JPY berbalik tren menjadi apresiasi.

 

Fixed Income News: BOJ naikkan batas rentang yield JGB 10Y menjadi ±1% (prev: ±0.5%). Walaupun bank sentral Jepang (BOJ) meningkatkan batas ketat menjadi ±1%, batas ±0.5% tetap dipertahankan sebagai rentang referensi. Pengumuman ini diumumkan bersamaan dengan peningkatan kenaikan proyeksi inflasi inti BOJ menjadi 3.2% (Prev: 2.5%). (Nikkei)

Global Economic News: Inflasi PCE AS turun di bulan Juni sesuai konsensus menjadi 3% yoy (May: 3.8% yoy; Cons: 3.1% yoy). Inflasi inti PCE Amerika Serikat juga turun menjadi 4.1% yoy (May: 4.6% yoy; Cons: 4.2% yoy). Turunnya inflasi PCE di bulan Juni meningkatkan keyakinan para pelaku pasar bahwa the Fed tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga acuannya baik pada bulan September ataupun November. Menurut kami, the Fed akan membatalkan rencana tersebut bila inflasi inti PCE AS turun lebih rendah dari proyeksi Juni 3.9% yoy pada akhir tahun. Saat ini inflasi PCE headline sudah lebih rendah dari proyeksi Juni the Fed (3.2% yoy). (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: BI tetapkan tujuh instrumen penampung devisa hasil ekspor sumber daya akam. Ketujuh instrument tersebut adalam rekening khusus DHE SDA, term deposit valas DHE SDA, deposito valas bank, promissory notes LPEI, penempatan deposito valas yang dapat dimanfaatkan menjadi agunan kredit Rupiah, serta swap valas nasabah-bank dan bank-BI. Bunga yang ditawarkan term deposit valas diperkirakan 5.51% untuk 3 bulan. Menurut kami, hal ini akan membantu menambah ketersediaan USD di perbankan dalam negeri. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0037, FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Juli 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Juli 2023 (Ind)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Juli 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Juli 2023 (Ind)

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