• Indonesia’s Nov-25 trade trade surplus narrowed to USD 2.84 bn, down from USD 4.37 bn a year earlier, confirming clear moderation in external momentum. The figure came in below market expectation of USD 3.1 bn and marginally under SSI’s forecast of USD 3.2 bn, reflecting weaker export performance alongside a mild rebound in imports. While the surplus remained positive, the latest development underscores a less supportive external environment toward year-end, with net exports likely contributing less to overall growth.
• Exports contracted sharply in November, falling 6.6% YoY to USD 22.52 bn, following a 2.31% decline in October and significantly worse than market expectations of a modest 0.5% drop. This marked the second consecutive month of export contraction and the steepest decline since February 2024, signaling a more pronounced cyclical slowdown. The weakness was led by a collapse in oil and gas exports, which plunged 32.88%, while non–oil and gas exports declined 5.09% to USD 21.64 bn, extending October’s 0.51% fall. By destination, exports to China fell 7.35% and to Japan declined 12.34%, highlighting softer demand from key Asian partners and a slowdown across regional production networks. In contrast, shipments to the United States picked up to 9.45% from 7.41% in October, suggesting some front-loading or resilience in US-bound exports despite the imposition of new tariffs.
• ⁠Imports, meanwhile, rose 0.46% YoY to USD 19.86 bn, rebounding from 1.15% contraction in October, though still well below market expectations of 3.2% increase. The uptick was driven primarily by a sharp rise in oil and gas imports (+11.19%), reflecting significantly higher crude oil purchases (+76.93%). In contrast, non–oil and gas imports contracted 1.15% to USD 17 bn, reversing the 3.26% growth recorded in October, suggesting that domestic demand recovery remains selective rather than broad-based. By country, imports increased from China (+10.47%), Taiwan (+2.52%), and the EU (+21.75%), while purchases from Australia edged down (-0.61%). Imports from Japan fell sharply (-25.42%), alongside declines from the US (-5.94%) and South Korea (-27.34%).
• Looking ahead, Indonesia’s trade surplus is expected to remain positive but structurally narrower in the near term, as export momentum weakens amid softer demand from China and Japan and as imports gradually normalize with domestic activity. While the YTD export performance still provides comfort, the recent monthly contraction suggests that external support to growth will be less pronounced entering early 2026, particularly given heated geopolitical tensions. From a market and policy perspective, a smaller surplus does not pose immediate risks to external stability, but it does reduce passive foreign exchange inflows, making the balance of payments more sensitive to portfolio flows and global financial conditions. If inflation remains contained despite exchange-rate continued exchange rate weakness, the softer trade backdrop may test Indonesia’s pro-growth policy stance. That said, the November data reinforce the importance of accelerating export diversification, strengthening downstream industries, and expanding non-commodity markets to sustain Indonesia’s external resilience in 2026.