Research & Stock Picks

Emiten Report

15 November 2023

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Automotive Sector – Overweight – 10M23 Auto Sales

10M23: Penjualan 2W dan 4W nasional

Penjualan 2W nasional di bulan Oktober mencatatkan pertumbuhan sebesar +1.2% MoM dan mendorong penjualan secara akumulatif di 10M23 naik +26.2% YoY mencapai 5.2 juta unit, sejalan dengan ekspektasi kami (87.3% proyeksi FY23F SSI). Tak hanya 2W, penjualan 4W Okt-23 mencatatkan kinerja yang stabil (+0.4% MoM) dan secara akumulatif di 10M23 mencapai 836,048 unit (-1.8% YoY) sejalan dengan proyeksi kami (83.6% proyeksi FY23F SSI). Terkait pangsa pasar, ASII kembali mempertahankan posisi nya sebagai market leader, baik 4W (55.4%, terutama melalui brand Toyota dan Daihatsu) maupun di 2W (>70% melalui brand Honda). Kami mempertahankan target penjualan 4W dan 2W FY23F nasional masing-masing diangka 1 juta unit dan 6 juta unit. Ke depan, kami menilai penjualan otomotif nasional akan turut dibebani oleh kenaikan suku bunga yang menyebabkan penurunan daya beli masyarakat, mengingat ~80% penjualan otomotif menggunakan kredit.

 

xEV mencapai 6.3% penjualan 4W nasional

Penjualan BEV 10M23 nasional bertumbuh signifikan dibandingkan tahun lalu yaitu menjadi 12,286 unit (10M22: 5,958 unit) dengan Hyundai Ioniq5 menjadi market leader (51.5% penjualan 4W EV), diikuti oleh Wuling Air EV (32.6%). Walaupun demikian, penjualan BEV tersebut masih tergolong belum signifikan karena hanya mencapai 1.5% penjualan 4W nasional (Proyeksi FY23F SSI: <3%). Tak hanya BEV, penjualan HEV juga mencatatkan pertumbuhan yang signifikan mencapai 40,555 unit (4.9% penjualan 4W nasional, 10M22: 1,982 unit), dengan Toyota Innova Zenix kembali menduduki posisi sebagai market leader (53.0% penjualan 4W Hybrid) diikuti oeh Toyota New Yaris Cross (11.7% penjualan 4W Hybrid). Seiring dengan baiknya respon masyarakat terhadap 4W HEV, kami menilai 4W jenis Hybrid dapat mencapai ~5% penjualan 4W nasional di FY23F.

 

Top Pick: DRMA

Kami mempertahankan DRMA sebagai top pick kami dengan TP IDR 1,900, didorong oleh beberapa katalis positif, di antaranya: (1) mulai terkonsolidasi hasil akuisisi PT Trimitra Chitrahasta (target pendapatan FY23F TCH mencapai IDR 700 miliar, ~18% pendapatan FY22 DRMA), (2) berjalannya pabrik 4W baru untuk memproduksi komponen suspension member bagi Toyota New Yaris Cross, dan (3) mulai masuk ke industri EV melalui komponen (salah satunya battery pack) dan charging station. Perlu dicatat, DRMA mencatatkan kinerja positif di sepanjang 9M23 dengan pertumbuhan pendapatan menjadi IDR 4.2 triliun (+59.7% YoY) dan laba bersih yang naik +107.8% YoY menjadi IDR 519 miliar. Angka tersebut termasuk one-off gain dari negative goodwill hasil akuisisi Trimitra Chitrahasta (“TCH”, IDR 56 miliar) yang dilakukan di Jan-23. Tanpa memperhitungkan one-off gain pun, laba bersih DRMA masih tumbuh signifikan (+85.4% YoY).

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