Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

18 July 2023

By

Apresiasi Rupiah tertahan hasil rilis neraca dagang Juni

Apresiasi Rupiah sejak Kamis lalu (13/7) terhenti oleh koreksi sebesar 0.3% menjadi IDR 15,005 per USD kemarin (17/7) akibat performa neraca dagang bulan Juni yang penuh kejutan. Meskipun surplus neraca dagang kembali meningkat pada bulan Juni menjadi USD 3.5bn (May: USD 0.4bn), performa neraca perdagangan secara keseluruhan menunjukkan potensi perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di 2Q23 serta kemungkinan defisit neraca berjalan FY23 yang lebih besar dari prediksi Bank Indonesia dalam rentang 0.4% hingga -0.4%. Menurut proyeksi kami, defisit neraca berjalan dapat mencapai -0.6% terhadap PDB. Akibat hal ini, momentum bullish rally IHSG juga terhenti menjadi sideways. Sementara itu, pasar obligasi kembali diwarnai aksi jual untuk tenor panjang 10Y (naik 3 bps menjadi 6.2%) serta tenor menengah 5Y (naik 4 bps menjadi 5.89%). Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10Y  masih akan mengalami  konsolidasi dalam rentang 6.1-6.2% hari ini. Sementara itu, Rupiah diprediksi masih akan tertekan di rentang IDR 14,950-15,050 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan akan laksanakan lelang SBSN hari ini dengan target indikatif IDR 6tn. Tampaknya Kementerian Keuangan memutuskan untuk menyetop kebijakan penurunan suplai penerbitan SBSN baru dalam lelang kali ini. Pada lelang SUN tanggal (11/7), Kementerian Keuangan menurunkan jumlah penerbitan baru menjadi IDR 13tn (27/6: IDR 14tn). Kami memprediksi jumlah penawaran masuk akan meningkat pada lelang SBSN kali ini menjadi kisaran IDR 40-45tn (11/7: IDR 34tn). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Pertumbuhan PDB Tiongkok 2Q23 lebih buruk dari ekspektasi, turun menjadi 6.3% yoy (1Q23: 4.5% yoy; Cons: 7.3% yoy). Perlambatan pertumbuhan PDB Tiongkok 2Q23 juga diikuti dengan penurunan penjualan ritel serta investasi di bulan Juni menjadi 3.1% yoy (May: 12.7% yoy; Cons Jun: 3.2% yoy) dan 3.8% yoy (May 4% yoy; Cons Jun: 3.5% yoy). Akan tetapi, produksi industri naik menjadi 4.4% yoy (May: 3.5% yoy; Cons Jun: 2.7% yoy). Menurut kami, pemerintah Tiongkok akan kembali memacu stimulus moneter melalui pemangkasan suku bunga PBOC untuk mencegah pelemahan lebih lanjut. Akan tetapi, prospek stimulus fiskal masih diwarnai ketidakpastian akibat factor geopolitik kebijakan ’kemandirian teknologi’ Presiden Xi Jinping. (Financial Times)

Domestic Economic News: Presiden Joko Widodo lakukan reshuffle cabinet, utamakan loyalis politik. Hal ini tercermin pada keputusan untuk melantik Budi Arie Setiadi sebagai Menteri Komunikasi dan Informatika, yang merupakan ketua Relawan Pro Jokowi. Selain itu, pelantikan Wakil Menteri Komunikasi dan Informatika Nezar Patria dan Wakil Menteri Badan Usaha Milik Negara Rosan Roeslani merupakan konsolidasi tim inner circle kandidat wakil presiden Erick Thohir untuk pemilihan umum 2024. Kami memperkirakan para loyalis akan bertugas untuk menjamin keberlangsungan kebijakan pemerintah saat ini. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0089, FR0094, PBS017, PBS036.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 Juli 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 Juli 2023 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 21, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Jun 20, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 20, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 19, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 19, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 14 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 14, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 14, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 13, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Mengalami Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 12 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Naik Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 11, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 11 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 10 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 7 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 07, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 06, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 6, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Research 5 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Jun 4, 2024

Banking Sector – Overweight – 4M24 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Jun 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia Manufacturing PMI: 3 June 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia May Inflation: 3 June 2024

Emiten Report

Jun 3, 2024

PGAS Update, BUY TP: 1,800 (from 1,300)

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 03, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 31, 2024

Daily Report

May 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Rebound Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 30, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report: 30 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 29, 2024

Daily Report

May 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 28, 2024

Daily Report

May 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

Daily Report

May 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 21, 2024

Daily Report

May 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 17, 2024

Daily Report

May 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 16, 2024

Daily Report

May 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

May 15, 2024

BRMS – BUY (Maintain) – TP IDR 230 – Improved Earnings Ahead

Daily Report

May 15, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 15 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 15, 2024

Daily Report

May 15, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Macro: 14 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 14, 2024

Daily Report

May 13, 2024

Samuel Weekly Macro: 1st Week of May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 13, 2024

Daily Report

May 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 8, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 08, 2024

Daily Report

May 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 07, 2024

Daily Report

May 6, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 06, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 03, 2024

Daily Report

May 3, 2024

JCI is Expected to Move Sideways Today

Daily Report

May 2, 2024

JCI Is Expected to Decline Today

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 02, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Apr 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 04 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 03 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat