Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

23 November 2023

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Aksi beli di pasar SBN tertahan depresiasi Rupiah

Pasar domestik dikejutkan oleh pelemahan Rupiah secara mendadak kemarin yang mencapai 0.9% menjadi 15, 575 per USD. Menurut Bank Indonesia, pelemahan ini bersifat temporer yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan permintaan secara tiba-tiba dari sektor korporasi dan perbankan. Akibat pelemahan tersebut, Indeks ICBI dan IDMA turun -0.1%, yang diikuti koreksi IHSG sebesar -0.8%. Walaupun demikian, yield 10Y INDON masih turun -4 bps menjadi 5.62%. Berkaca pada posisi USD/IDR 1M-NDF yang lebih tinggi dari posisi spot market (IDR 15,628 per USD), kami memprediksi Rupiah masih akan melemah hari ini menuju rentang IDR 15,600-15,700 per USD. Menurut kami, depresiasi Rupiah kemarin disebabkan oleh momentum menjelang pengumuman suku bunga BI 7DRRR. Ekspektasi BI akan menahan suku bunga di level 6% pada bulan ini direspon negatif oleh pasar di pasar valuta asing. Sehingga, kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga BI 7DRRR sebesar 25 bps menjadi 6.25% pada bulan Desember tetap harus diperhitungkan. Kami memperkirakan BI berpotensi kembali menaikkan suku bunga bila Rupiah kembali terdepresiasi di rentang IDR 15,700-15,900 per USD. Kami juga memperkirakan pergerakan yield 10Y INDOGB hari ini masih akan tertahan di rentang 6.6-6.7%.

Fixed Income News: IIF akan terbitkan Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Tahap I Tahun 2023 pada bulan Desember. PT Indonesia Infrastructure Finance menargetkan pendanaan IDR 500bn melalui rilis obligasi yang akan dibagi menjadi 3 seri, yaitu Seri A dengan tenor 1 tahun dan kupon bunga 6.25-6.95%, Seri B dengan tenor 3 tahun dan kupon bunga 6.6-7.1%, maupun Seri C dengan tenor 5 tahun dank upon bunga 6.75-7.25%. Penawaran umum direncanakan berlangsung pada 15-18 Desember, dan distribusi pada 21 Desember. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: Sentimen konsumen AS turun di bulan November tetapi masih lebih baik dari konsensus menjadi 61.3 (Oct: 63.8; Cons: 60.4). Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh memburuknya persepsi konsumen terhadap prospek inflasi di masa mendatang yang tercermin dari kenaikan ekspektasi inflasi 1Y menjadi 4.5% (Oct: & Cons: 4.4%). Kenaikan ekspektasi inflasi ini disebabkan ekspektasi kenaikan harga bahan bakar. Kami melihat hal ini dapat mendorong The Fed untuk tetap mempertahankan retorika hawkish. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Pertamina prediksi konsumsi solar bersubsidi 2023 melebihi kuota. Menurut estimasi PT Pertamina, konsumsi solar bersubsidi FY23 mungkin mencapai 19.6 juta kiloliter (2022: 17.5 juta Kl; Quota: 16.8 juta Kl). Kekurangan kuota ini berpotensi ditutup oleh dana subsidi Pertalite yang konsumsinya diperkirakan lebih rendah dari kuota, yakni sebesar 30.8 juta Kl (2022: 29.34 juta Kl; Quota: 32.56 juta Kl). Untuk mengatasi hal ini, Pertamina telah mengajukan tambahan kuota solar bersubsidi 1.2 juta KL menjadi 18 juta Kl untuk FY23. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 November 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 November 2023 (Eng)

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