Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

23 November 2023

By

Aksi beli di pasar SBN tertahan depresiasi Rupiah

Pasar domestik dikejutkan oleh pelemahan Rupiah secara mendadak kemarin yang mencapai 0.9% menjadi 15, 575 per USD. Menurut Bank Indonesia, pelemahan ini bersifat temporer yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan permintaan secara tiba-tiba dari sektor korporasi dan perbankan. Akibat pelemahan tersebut, Indeks ICBI dan IDMA turun -0.1%, yang diikuti koreksi IHSG sebesar -0.8%. Walaupun demikian, yield 10Y INDON masih turun -4 bps menjadi 5.62%. Berkaca pada posisi USD/IDR 1M-NDF yang lebih tinggi dari posisi spot market (IDR 15,628 per USD), kami memprediksi Rupiah masih akan melemah hari ini menuju rentang IDR 15,600-15,700 per USD. Menurut kami, depresiasi Rupiah kemarin disebabkan oleh momentum menjelang pengumuman suku bunga BI 7DRRR. Ekspektasi BI akan menahan suku bunga di level 6% pada bulan ini direspon negatif oleh pasar di pasar valuta asing. Sehingga, kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga BI 7DRRR sebesar 25 bps menjadi 6.25% pada bulan Desember tetap harus diperhitungkan. Kami memperkirakan BI berpotensi kembali menaikkan suku bunga bila Rupiah kembali terdepresiasi di rentang IDR 15,700-15,900 per USD. Kami juga memperkirakan pergerakan yield 10Y INDOGB hari ini masih akan tertahan di rentang 6.6-6.7%.

Fixed Income News: IIF akan terbitkan Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Tahap I Tahun 2023 pada bulan Desember. PT Indonesia Infrastructure Finance menargetkan pendanaan IDR 500bn melalui rilis obligasi yang akan dibagi menjadi 3 seri, yaitu Seri A dengan tenor 1 tahun dan kupon bunga 6.25-6.95%, Seri B dengan tenor 3 tahun dan kupon bunga 6.6-7.1%, maupun Seri C dengan tenor 5 tahun dank upon bunga 6.75-7.25%. Penawaran umum direncanakan berlangsung pada 15-18 Desember, dan distribusi pada 21 Desember. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: Sentimen konsumen AS turun di bulan November tetapi masih lebih baik dari konsensus menjadi 61.3 (Oct: 63.8; Cons: 60.4). Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh memburuknya persepsi konsumen terhadap prospek inflasi di masa mendatang yang tercermin dari kenaikan ekspektasi inflasi 1Y menjadi 4.5% (Oct: & Cons: 4.4%). Kenaikan ekspektasi inflasi ini disebabkan ekspektasi kenaikan harga bahan bakar. Kami melihat hal ini dapat mendorong The Fed untuk tetap mempertahankan retorika hawkish. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Pertamina prediksi konsumsi solar bersubsidi 2023 melebihi kuota. Menurut estimasi PT Pertamina, konsumsi solar bersubsidi FY23 mungkin mencapai 19.6 juta kiloliter (2022: 17.5 juta Kl; Quota: 16.8 juta Kl). Kekurangan kuota ini berpotensi ditutup oleh dana subsidi Pertalite yang konsumsinya diperkirakan lebih rendah dari kuota, yakni sebesar 30.8 juta Kl (2022: 29.34 juta Kl; Quota: 32.56 juta Kl). Untuk mengatasi hal ini, Pertamina telah mengajukan tambahan kuota solar bersubsidi 1.2 juta KL menjadi 18 juta Kl untuk FY23. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 November 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 November 2023 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Feb 20, 2024

Strategy Report: 2024 Elections – What’s Next?

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 19, 2024

BBRI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,800 – Higher earning-assets portfolio to support NIM

Daily Report

Feb 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 12 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBNI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,600 – Fundamental improvement in risk profile

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBCA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 10,800 – Conservative During Election Year

Daily Report

Feb 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Report

Feb 2, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 31 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 Jan 2024

Emiten Report

Jan 29, 2024

RAJA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 2,200 – Long Live the King!

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 18 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 15 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 29, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 29 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 29, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 28, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 28 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 28, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 27, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 27 December 2023 (window dressing)

Daily Report

Dec 27, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 22, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 22 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 22, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

BI pertahankan suku bunga acuan pada bulan Desember di tengah euforia dovish pivot

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Outlook 2024 – Global Dovish Pivot Euphoria

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

Waspadai batas resisten teknikal yield 10Y UST di 3.8%

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 21, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 21 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Dec 20, 2023

Market players are disappointed with the BoJ’s policy

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 20, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 20 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 20, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Dec 19, 2023

Waspadai overbought instrumen INDOGB dan INDON

Daily Report

Dec 19, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 19, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 19 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

Euforia dovish pivot The Fed meluas ke ECB

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

Surplus neraca dagang November menipis akibat meningkatnya impor menjelang libur akhir tahun

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 18, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 18 December 2023

Emiten Report

Dec 15, 2023

Automotive Sector – Overweight – 11M23 Auto Sales

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 15, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 15 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 15, 2023

Euforia dovish pivot global berlanjut

Daily Report

Dec 15, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Dec 14, 2023

Cement Sector: 11M23 Cement Sales

Emiten Report

Dec 14, 2023

Strategy report – 2024 Market Outlook

Daily Report

Dec 14, 2023

Gap IHSG Vs. LQ 45 & IDX 80 tekan Rupiah, SBN; Pasar proyeksikan pemangkasan 150 bps Vs. Fed: 75 bps

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 14, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 14 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 14, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Report

Dec 13, 2023

Asa pasar terhadap ekspektasi dovish pivot The Fed masih belum pupus

Daily Report

Dec 13, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 13, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 13 December 2023

Emiten Report

Dec 12, 2023

GOTO: BUY (From HOLD), TP at 120 – A New Hope

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 12, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 12 December 2023

Economic & Fixed Income

Dec 11, 2023

Menguatnya pasar tenaga kerja AS picu aksi jual UST

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 11, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 11 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 11, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Dec 8, 2023

Waspadai efek BOJ dan rilis data pasar tenaga kerja AS

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 8, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 08 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 8, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Emiten Report

Dec 7, 2023

BUY (Maintain), TP at IDR 6,100 – Notes from Analyst Gathering

Daily Report

Dec 7, 2023

Yield 10Y UST sentuh 4.1% akibat ekspektasi dovish pivot The Fed

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 7, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 07 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 7, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Dec 6, 2023

Bullish rally global berlanjut, waspadai apresiasi USD

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 6, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Desember 2023

Daily Report

Dec 6, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 5, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Desember 2023

Emiten Report

Dec 4, 2023

NCKL: BUY (Maintain), TP at IDR 1,500 – Buying Manhattan for Beads

Emiten Report

Dec 4, 2023

Banking Sector – Overweight – 10M23 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Dec 4, 2023

Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Weekly 2023-12-4

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 4, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 04 Desember 2023