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Strength
Domestic 4W sales in Dec-24 grew 6.6% MoM, with ASII ahead at 7.0%, brought FY24 sales to 865,000 units, exceeding Gaikindo’s expectation but in-line with our estimate, as we anticipated year-end discounts and pre-12% VAT hikes to support sales
Weakness
On an annual basis, Dec-24 sales declined 6.4% due to erosion in purchasing power, bringing total FY24 vehicle sales volumes down 13.9%; BYD's sales decreased 45.0% MoM in December to 1,563 units, possibly indicating waning EV appetite
Opportunity
2025 HEV sales are expected to rise driven by reduced 3% luxury tax incentive (PPnBM DTP), applicable exclusively to locally manufactured cars; severe market underperformance by both ASII and DRMA should provide buying opportunities
Threat
The increase in VAT to 12% for luxury goods in 2025 could further dampen vehicle demand; meanwhile, a modest reduction in the Federal Funds Rate may limit BI's ability to cut rates, resulting in continued market underperformances for both ASII and DRMA
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