In line top line aligns on outbreak-related cases. In 3Q25, MIKA booked revenue of IDR 1.4tn (+21.5% YoY; +9.7% QoQ), bringing 9M25 revenue to IDR 4.0tn (+12.8% YoY), in line with both our and consensus estimates (SSI: 75.3%; Cons: 74.3%). The strong topline growth was primarily driven by higher case intensity, with ARPID reaching IDR 4.2tn (+6.3% YoY; +0.9% QoQ) and ARPOV rising to IDR 605bn (+15.9% YoY; +1.9% QoQ). Additional support came from ~3% tariff adjustment in January and increased private patient mix of 88.1% (9M24: 84.8%). On the volume side, inpatient admissions grew  to 83k (+9.3% YoY; +10.7% QoQ), while outpatient visits rose to 764k (+1.3% YoY; +11.2% QoQ), partly thanks to mild uptick in outbreak-related cases (e.g., influenza and dengue fever) during 3Q25.

 

Margins improved on favorable payer mix and higher case intensity. On profitability front, GPM rose to 55.6% (2Q25: 55.1%; 3Q24: 53.4%), supported by favorable case mix and higher Center of Excellence (COE) contribution, which reached ~25%. EBITDA margin stood at 38.9% (2Q25: 39.4%; 3Q24: 36.7%), driven by more favorable payer mix, as the company continued to increase its private patient share amid stricter BPJS referral policies. On the bottom line, net profit rose to IDR 377bn (+38.5% YoY; +13.7% QoQ), bringing 9M25 earnings to IDR 1.0tn (+16.5% YoY), higher than our and consensus forecasts (SSI: 81.0%; Cons: 79.3%).

 

Expect upbeat momentum driven by hospital and COE expansion. Following the release of MIKA’s 9M25 results, we maintain our top-line forecast and raise our bottom-line estimate by 5.9%; our positive view is backed by the company’s strong operational execution, ongoing technological advancements, and optimization of service mix. As MIKA expands its private patient base, we expect the company to focus on enhancing case intensity through broader service offerings, supported by its COE, whose contribution is projected to grow ~2–3% annually. This focus will be further strengthened by ongoing investments in medical technology, including the upcoming nuclear medicine center in Bekasi Timur (to open on 9 November 2025) and the development of PET/CT and SPECT/CT facilities to strengthen its oncology service capabilities. Moreover, before the end of 2025F, MIKA plans to open a new hospital in East Java (early November), adding 200 beds (+4.8% vs. current operational capacity) in line with its long-term target of opening 2 hospitals per annum while maintaining its high single-digit top-line growth guidance.

 

Robust ROE has us retaining BUY on raised TP with 21% upside. We maintain our BUY rating with upgraded TP of IDR 3,130/share (from IDR 3,100), implying 2026F EV/EBITDA of 15.6x and 21.3% upside, supported by robust ROE of 19.6% (peers: 14.1%). Our positive stance is underpinned by MIKA’s strategic initiatives to increase private patient contributions amid tighter BPJS referral policies, as well as rising COE contributions and ongoing efforts to expand COB participation. Furthermore, BPJS class standardization is expected to encourage a shift toward higher-tier services (particularly Class 1), providing additional support for earnings growth. Key risks: (1) higher-than-expected USD/IDR exchange rate, and (2) lower-than-expected case intensity.