Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

20 June 2023

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Macro Weekly Strategy 20 June 2022

Update 2 Minggu Sebelumnya 5 – 18 Juni 2023:

  • Optimisme pasar global meningkat setelah pengumuman proyeksi FOMC untuk bulan Juni
  • Di pasar obligasi global terjadi pergeseran dari developed market ke emerging market, yang diikuti berlanjutnya bullish rally pasar saham DM dan EM
  • Di pasar obligasi global terjadi pergeseran dari developed market ke emerging market, yang diikuti berlanjutnya bullish rally pasar saham DM dan EM
  • Potensi soft landing tercermin dari kenaikan proyeksi the Fed atas pertumbuhan GDP 2023 yang diikuti penurunan tingkat pengangguran serta inflasi umum
  • Akan tetapi pergerakan data inflasi bulan Mei menunjukkan akselerasi proses disinflasi
  • Pasar menangkap kejanggalan tersebut
  • Sementara itu, kondisi makro Indonesia terus membaik, seperti yang ditandai dengan penurunan inflasi di bulan Mei ke batas atas rentang target BI
  • Sayangnya kondisi ini diikuti penurunan drastis surplus neraca dagang Mei menjadi USD 0.4bn (Apr: USD 3.9bn) yang memicu kekhawatiran akan defisit neraca berjalan
  • Dampak sentimen negatif neraca dagang Mei lebih kuat karena di waktu yang sama Bank Indonesia tengah kesulitan menahan tekanan depresiasi Rupiah

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-06-19 (Ind)
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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-06-19 (Ind)
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