Reiterate BUY on stronger 2H26, undemanding valuation and attractive yield. 2H26 performance of CMNA will be supported by series of highly anticipated international movie releases, including Minions, Jumanji, Spider-Man, and Avengers, estimated to generate up to 20mn admissions. Thus, we retain our positive view on the stock despite our 5.5% earnings cut in 2026F (Figure 2) on challenging Indonesian economic condition due to IDR depreciation, rising operating costs, and higher interest rates. Thus, we lower our target price to IDR 110/sh (previously: IDR 170/sh) as we switch to a more conservative valuation method using PER from DCF previously. With the stock’s 23% YTD decline creating an attractive entry point given 2027F P/E of 8.6x, representing 40% discount to the sector, coupled with the company’s 100% payout ratio providing attractive dividend yield of 10.4%, CMNA remains a BUY. Key risks to our recommendation include weaker-than-expected admissions from the international movie slate, lower moviegoer enthusiasm, and weaker-than-expected Indonesian economic environment.

 

53mn admissions on 259 movie releases in 1H26 to support 2Q performance. Based on our channel checks as of end-1H26, at least 259 movie titles had been released across Indonesia’s cinema supply chain, generating total admissions of 52.7mn. Assuming CNMA maintains an estimated ~70% market share, we estimate the company recorded c.36.7mn admissions during 1H26, translating to -13.6% YoY decline on cumulative basis. On quarterly basis, admissions showed +37.5% QoQ recovery, although remained down -25.7% YoY. We view the performance as relatively modest, with sequential improvement primarily driven by the seasonally weaker movie slate in the early part of the year. Meanwhile, the YoY contraction was largely attributable to a high-base effect following the strong 2Q25 performance, 33.6% of FY25 earnings—the highest quarterly contribution over the past four years. That said, in 2Q26F, we estimate CNMA to deliver revenues of IDR 1.5tn and net profit of IDR 200-250bn. This would bring 1H26 earnings to be broadly in line with SSI (30%) and consensus (32%) FY26F expectations.

 

Expecting strong 2H26 results driven by robust international franchise slates. We believe the strong 2H26 performance will be backed by series of highly anticipated international franchise releases, including Minions, Jumanji, Spider-Man, and Avengers, potentially to generate admissions of up to 20mn moviegoers. Furthermore, we expect stronger international movie lineup to support higher profitability margins, with the F&B-to-GBO (Gross Box Office) ratio potentially increasing to 56.0% (vs. 53.8% in 1Q26). Combined with the continued strong momentum from local movie releases, we believe the robust international slate should support 2H26 performance in line with SSI and Consensus forecasts. On the local slates front, we expect admissions to remain concentrated in dominant genres such as horror, drama, and comedy, as our research indicates these categories continue to attract the largest audience base. Therefore, the release of strong local franchises within these genres could serve as key catalyst ahead.