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May-26 4W sales fell 14.3% MoM, normalizing from April. In May-26, Indonesia’s 4W sales reached 69K units (-14.3% MoM, +14.0% YoY), normalizing after April’s post-Lebaran boost. ASII’s market share rose to 55.8% due to BYD’s supply constraints during its transition to local production. We expect 2026F sales to reach 820K units (+2% YoY), supported by EV growth but weighed down by high interest rates, weak IDR, imported inflation, and potential fuel subsidy changes.
EVs to drive 4W sales with market share increasing to more than 30%. Despite BYD’s temporary supply constraints, xEV market share remained resilient at 26% in 5M26 (5M25: 17%), supported by strong BEV (+83% YoY) and HEV (+44% YoY) growth. We expect xEV penetration to exceed 30% in 2026F and reach 35–40% over the next 2–3 years, driven by continued incentives and new model launches, while ICE vehicles should remain preferred among price-sensitive consumers due to their lower prices and stronger resale values.
Neutral on the automotive sector, with ASII as our top pick. We maintain a Neutral stance on the auto sector amid weak purchasing power, higher fuel prices, and elevated interest rates, although EV adoption remains resilient. We prefer ASII (HOLD, TP: 5,500) for its large-cap stability and attractive valuation, while DRMA (HOLD, TP: 950) focuses on cost efficiency to mitigate USD-linked cost pressures, and ASLC (HOLD, TP: 65) should benefit from stronger used-car demand despite lower margins from reduced JBA contribution.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
