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Maintain BUY with TP of IDR 4,400 (2.0x 2026F PBV) on resilient micro franchise. Strengthening funding mix, expansion of transaction-led ecosystems, and improving assets quality across all segments backed by well executed management strategy have us maintaining BUY on BBRI given attractive 2026F PBV of 1.6x, trading at 19% discount to the sector’s PBV of 2.1x. Our TP of IDR 4,400 implies a rerating close to the sector with 2026F PBV of 2.0x, warranted on the back of sustainable ROE around high-teens levels going forward. On the operating front, management guides for 2026F loan growth of 7–9% (FY25: 12.3%), NIM of 7.4–7.8% (FY25: 7.8%), and credit cost of 2.9–3.2% (FY25: 3.3%). While slower loan growth and potential margin pressure from higher KUR insurance premiums may pose near-term risks, these are offset by improving cost of funds, better CASA mix, and ongoing assets quality normalization.
1Q26 result expectations: Net profit -6.7% QoQ, +4.2% YoY. Looking ahead, we expect BBRI to book 1Q26 net profit of IDR 14.4tn (-6.7% QoQ, +4.2% YoY), supported by lower cost of credit. In 4Q25, BBRI posted attributable net profit of IDR 15.9 tn (+9.5% QoQ, +6.7% YoY), bringing FY25 earnings to IDR 56.7 tn (-5.5% YoY), broadly in line with our number (100%) and consensus (101%). Quarterly performance improved sequentially, helped by stronger operating income and non-interest income momentum. 4Q25 NII rose 4.7% QoQ and 13.5% YoY to IDR 39.5 tn, while PPOP increased 15.1% QoQ and 13.3% YoY to IDR 32.7 tn. Meanwhile, FY25 NIM stood at 7.8%, slightly above management’s guidance range, driven by declining cost of funds and favorable asset mix.
Solid funding mix improvement supports liquidity profile in FY26. Propelled mainly by stronger current account growth and ongoing customer acquisition across mass and merchant ecosystems, BBRI managed to grow its deposits 7.4% YoY to IDR 1,467 tn in FY25, while CASA expanded 13% YoY, lifting the CASA ratio to 70.6% (FY24: 67.3%). This improving mix helped push cost of funds lower into year-end, providing additional buffer against potential margin normalization in 2026. On the assets side, loan growth remained robust at 12.4% YoY to IDR 1,535 tn, supported by outsized expansions in commercial (+57% YoY) and corporate (+40% YoY), while consumer loans still grew +9% YoY on payroll-linked lending and secured products. Meanwhile, micro lending growth stayed modest as BBRI continued to prioritize underwriting discipline and portfolio clean-up, particularly within Kupedes, which should support healthier growth quality and better risk-adjusted returns into FY26.
Gradual improvement in assets quality despite higher provisioning. Looking forward, we expect assets quality to stabilize in 2026 (FY26F NPL: 3.0%) due to improvement in micro asset quality. In 4Q25, gross NPLs stood at 3.1%, broadly stable sequentially but slightly higher YoY due to downgrades in several portfolios. Encouragingly, Loan-at-Risk (LAR) improved to 9.6% from 10.7% in 3Q25, while SML declined to 3.8%, reflecting ongoing balance sheet clean-up and improved risk management. Provisioning increased 21% YoY, bringing FY25 credit cost to 3.3%, slightly above guidance but still within manageable levels as BBRI continues to strengthen risk buffers and accelerate legacy portfolio resolution.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
