Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

10 February 2026

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Samuel Daily Economic Insights 10 February 2026

Overview

Indonesia’s macro narrative in early 2026 reflects a mix of gradual labor-market improvement, rising financial-sector vigilance, and mounting institutional risks. Falling unemployment points to continued absorption of workers, supporting the view that domestic demand remains broadly resilient. At the same time, currency weakness and tighter global financial conditions are increasingly spilling into operating costs for transport and trade-facing sectors. Financial stability concerns have intensified following Moody’s downgrade of major banks’ outlooks, underscoring the sensitivity of the system to sovereign risk perceptions. Regulatory enforcement has become more assertive, with OJK imposing sizable fines tied to market misconduct, signaling a tougher stance on governance. Institutional transitions at Bank Indonesia are proceeding amid heightened scrutiny of policy credibility. On the resource front, the government’s crackdown on mining permits carries meaningful legal and fiscal tail risks. Politically, public support for flagship social programs remains strong, even as governance, security, and disaster-readiness challenges persist. Overall, the landscape suggests steady growth momentum but rising execution and credibility risks across institutions.

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