■ Solid topline growth driven by more working days. Revenue reached IDR 1.45tn (+6.0% QoQ; +8.5% YoY), with taxi segment strength offsetting weakness from protests that reduced mobility and WFH activity for about a week. Non-taxi growth was muted as Cititrans gains were offset by Bigbird softness. 9M25 revenue of IDR 4.12tn (+12.4% YoY) came slightly below our 71.9% forecast but in line with consensus at 73.3%.

■ Lower earnings on one-off incentives and low utilization weigh on profitability. Net profit fell to IDR 147bn (-13.5% QoQ; -15.1% YoY) with margins down to 10.2% due to higher opex from temporary driver incentives, increased depreciation, and lower utilization. 9M25 net profit reached IDR 483bn (+10.6% YoY), tracking slightly below our 70.1% estimate but in line with consensus (73.2%). This led us to trim 2025–27F revenue by 2.5–3.4% and net profit by 6.1–7.4%.

■ Expecting stronger 4Q25 performance amid rainy season and year-end holiday. Taxi utilization is set to improve with rainy-season demand and holiday travel, while non-taxi is expected to be the key growth engine with a 2025–27F CAGR of 24.3%, driven by rentals and shuttles. Taxi growth should stay in the low teens, supported by dynamic pricing and easing incentives from competitors, though Green SM’s 30–40% cheaper fares and the return of Express Taxi may intensify competition.

■ BUY with TP of IDR 2,900 (64.8% upside) on attractive valuations. Despite modest earnings cuts, we maintain BUY given strong fundamentals, brand strength, and discounted valuation. BIRD trades at 5.3x P/E (55% below industry), with 21.2% EPS growth, 8.2% dividend yield, and USD 14k EV/taxi. Both DCF (WACC 10.3%; TG 4.0%) and P/E target yield IDR 2,900 TP. Key risks include weaker volumes, potential renewed cash-burn from ride-hailing players, and higher fuel costs.