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■ *Trade Surplus at Record High:* Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to USD 5.49 billion in August, the highest since 2022, driven by downstream mineral exports and weak imports, providing strong external buffers despite fragile domestic demand.
■ *Inflation Within Range but Rising:* September inflation accelerated to 2.65%, above forecast, largely due to food prices. Core inflation stayed at 2.19%, indicating limited demand pressure but persistent food-related risks.
■ *Fiscal Transition and APBN 2026:* The 2026 state budget allocates IDR 3,840 trillion with a 2.68% deficit, prioritizing infrastructure, Nusantara’s development, B50 biodiesel rollout, and social programs. Fiscal leadership shifted with Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa replacing Sri Mulyani as Finance Minister.
■ *New Trade Partnerships:* Indonesia signed the EU–Indonesia CEPA and advanced the Indonesia–Canada FTA, with Canada committing USD 600 million for clean energy, infrastructure, and agriculture — strengthening diversification of markets and investment flows.
■ *VAR Model Insight:* Rupiah’s Road Home: A liquidity injection of IDR 200 trillion shows limited immediate impact but lifts GDP by 0.336% in the second quarter and 0.5% cumulatively over ten quarters. Initial rupiah depreciation can turn into sustainable appreciation if liquidity is directed toward productive sectors such as downstreaming, clean energy, and digitalization.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
