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09 December 2024

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Copper Weekly (02-06 December 2024): Avg. USD 8,954/ton (+0.7% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the last five trading days, copper prices increased +0.7% WoW to USD 8,954/ton, driven by weakening USD, which provided some support for the price of copper. Adding to the optimism, OPEC+ hinted at extending production cuts until the end of 1Q25, boosting investors’ confidence in raw materials.
  • As of 5 Dec, SMM copper inventories fell to 130,300 mt (-5.2% WoW), marking the seventh straight week of destocking, albeit at a slower pace. Looking ahead, downstream consumption may rise next week as manufacturers ramp up production to meet 1Q25 targets.
  • At this stage of the copper market cycle, we maintain our average FY24 price forecast at USD 9,150/ton (YTD: USD 9,162/ton), factoring in the impacts of China-US trade war concerns and weak global economic outlook. We retain MDKA as our top pick, with TP IDR 3,050 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 10.9x), supported by its path to profitability and the expected completion of the Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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