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18 November 2024

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Gold Weekly (18 November 2024): USD 2,584/oz (-4.5% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 11–15 November 2024, average gold prices plunged -4.5% WoW to USD 2,584/oz (from USD 2,706/oz), while the DXY index spiked to USD 106.3 (+1.8% WoW). Gold extended its losses, falling below USD 2,600/oz mark, weighed down by China’s weaker economic outlook.
  • Despite Fed’s recent 50bps rate cut, October’s CPI report showed annual core inflation remained steady at +3.3%, in line with expectations but offering little support for faster rate-cut trajectory. The USD surged to two-year high post-election while speculation of conflict between Fed and incoming administration on monetary policy adds uncertainty, pressuring gold prices.
  • We maintain our FY24 gold price estimate at USD 2,400/oz (YTD: USD 2,355/oz), given current price which is still above the USD 2,500/oz level. Stock-wise, we retain BRMS as our top pick (TP IDR 500; USD 26.4/ton EV/Reserve FY25F), driven by its robust dore bullion production, strong earnings outlook, and substantial untapped assets potential.

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