Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

08 August 2024

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Samuel Daily Economic: 8 August 2024

Ikhtisar

Cadangan devisa Indonesia melonjak ke USD 145.4 miliar di Juli 2024, dari USD 140,2 miliar dari Juni, sekaligus menjadi level tertingginya sejak Desember 2023. Lonjakan ini, yang dikaitkan dengan suksesknya penerbitan sukuk global dan meningkatnya penerimaan pajak, memastikan Indonesia memiliki cadangan devisa setara dengan 6.3 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri, menunjukkan stabilitas keuangan. Presiden Jokowi menegaskan APBN 2025 harus mengakomodasi semua inisiatif Prabowo. Wakil presiden terpilih Gibran menerima ide untuk menggunakan jagung sebagai pengganti beras dalam program makan siang gratis Prabowo. Jokowi membentuk gugus tugas untuk mempercepat investasi di ibu kota baru, Nusantara, dan istana mengkonfirmasi kelanjutan pembangunannya di bawah Prabowo. Belanja pemerintah tetap pada jalurnya meskipun ada perlambatan, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia Q2 2024 sebesar 5.05% melampaui Tiongkok, Singapura, dan Korea Selatan. Namun, kekhawatiran muncul terkait rencana cukai lemak dan garam di makanan olahan. Investasi signifikan oleh Sinopec dan PetroChina di sektor migas Indonesia, bersama dengan rencana Kementerian Energi untuk melelang area eksplorasi dan memproses batu bara menjadi gas untuk pabrik peleburan di Sulawesi, menjadi highlight kegiatan ekonomi yang sedang berlangsung. Meskipun masih banyak tantangan, termasuk melemahnya diferensial gasoil dan target bauran energi yang belum terpenuhi, upaya terus dilakukan untuk mempromosikan energi terbarukan dan kerja sama ekonomi, seperti yang terlihat dari ekspansi TVS Motor ke ASEAN dan inovasi sektor keuangan Indonesia-Singapura.

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