Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

05 August 2024

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Samuel Weekly Economic 5 August 2024

Highlight

  • Kebijakan Suku Bunga Fed: Pada pertemuan kebijakannya di bulan Juli 2024, The Fed memutuskan mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya di 5.25%-5.50%, serta mengindikasikan potensi penurunan suku bunga pada bulan September jika inflasi sesuai dengan ekspektasi, di tengah ketidakpastian geopolitik dan terkait pemilu.
  • Penurunan Inflasi Indonesia: Tingkat inflasi tahunan Indonesia menurun signifikan ke 2.13% pada bulan Juli 2024, dipengaruhi oleh melambatnya kenaikan harga pangan. Penurunan inflasi ini berpotensi menghambat pencapaian target pertumbuhan ekonomi pemerintah di FY2024 yang lebih dari 5%.
  • Kontraksi PMI Manufaktur: PMI Manufaktur Indonesia S&P Global turun ke 49.3 pada bulan Juli 2024, menandai kontraksi (angka di bawah 50) pertama sejak Agustus 2021, di tengah melemahnya produksi, berkurangnya permintaan, dan masalah rantai pasokan.
  • Realisasi Investasi Q2 2024: Indonesia mendapatkan investasi IDR 428.4 triliun di Q2 2024, dengan kontribusi signifikan dari investor domestik dan asing, khususnya di sektor pertambangan, logam dasar, dan telekomunikasi.
  • Proyek Besar dan Isu Keberlanjutan: Inisiatif utama seperti proyek baterai mobil listrik PT LG dan proyek Ibu Kota Nusantara terus berlanjut, sementara masalah lingkungan dan ketergantungan pada investasi Tiongkok di industri nikel menimbulkan kekhawatiran terkait isu keberlanjutan.

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