Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

06 December 2023

By

Bullish rally global berlanjut, waspadai apresiasi USD

Sesuai dengan perkiraan kami, yield INDOGB dan INDON bergerak mendatar (flat) kemarin (5/12) akibat koreksi di pasar obligasi global. Akan tetapi, koreksi tersebut hanya bersifat sementara, yang tercermin dari penurunan yield 10Y UST dan Bund masing-masing -9 dan -10 bps menjadi 4.16% dan 2.25%. Walaupun yield obligasi developed market menurun, terjadi penguatan indeks dolar sebesar 0.2% menjadi 104 yang menekan indeks komoditas global S&P-Goldman Sachs turun -0.5%. Hal tersebut berpotensi menekan Rupiah menuju rentang IDR 15,500-15,600 per USD. Pelemahan Rupiah berpotensi merededam dampak positif dari berlanjutnya bullish rally di pasar global ke pasar SBN maupun IHSG hari ini. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB masih akan tertahan di rentang 6.55-6.65% hari ini yang diikuti oleh pergerakan sideways yield 2Y dan 5Y INDOGB di rentang masing-masing 6.6-6.7% dan 6.5-6.6%. Sedangkan, yield INDON berpeluang melanjutkan penurunan karena korelasi yang lebih kuat dengan pergerakan yield US treasury.

Fixed Income News: Tingkat permintaan lelang SBSN kemarin (5/12) meningkat menjadi IDR 19.8tn (21/11: IDR 18.6tn). Namun, jumlah rilis SBSN baru dikurangi menjadi IDR 9.1tn (21/11: 9.7tn). Alokasi penerbitan terbesar dicatat oleh PBS003 dengan tenor 4 tahun (IDR 4.2tn), yang diikuti oleh SPNS04062024 dengan tenor 6M (IDR 2tn) dan seri baru PBS038 yang berpotensi menjadi tenor acuan 25Y tahun depan (IDR1.3tn). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: PMI ISM sektor jasa AS naik pada bulan November menjadi 52.7 (Oct: 51.8; Cons: 52). Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh resiliensi tingkat permintaan terhadap produk jasa di Amerika Serikat yang tercermin dari PMI new orders yang bertahan di 55.5. Akan tetapi, kenaikan permintaan baru tersebut tidak diikuti dengan kenaikan rekrutmen tenaga kerja baru yang signifikan, yang terlihat dari peningkatan PMI employment menjadi 50.7 lebih rendah dari konsensus (Oct: 50.2; Cons: 51.4). Pasar melihat hal ini sebagai hasil yang positif karena memastikan terjadinya skenario soft landing perekonomian AS di 1H24 dan menjaga momentum pelemahan pasar tenaga kerja AS dengan tingkat pengangguran 3.9% per bulan Oktober. (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian Kesehatan deteksi kasus pneumonia di Jakarta. Penyebaran Pneumonia terdeteksi pertama kali secara massif di Tiongkok. Menurut WHO, penyebaran kasus tersebut disebabkan oleh perubahan cuaca memasuki musim dingin di belahan bumi utara. Merespon temuan kasus pneumonia di Jakarta, para pakar kesehatan publik meminta pemerintah untuk menggalakkan vaksinasi PCV (Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine) dan penggunaan masker. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

 

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Desember 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Desember 2023 (Ind)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Desember 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Desember 2023 (Ind)

More Related

Morning Briefs

Dec 23, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Dec, 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 22, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Insights 23 December 2024

Company Reports

Dec 20, 2024

Samuel IPO Snippet: BANGUN KOSAMBI SUKSES (CBDK)

peluang aces ditengah gejolak ekonomi

Company Reports

Dec 20, 2024

ACES: 11M24 SSSG

tren harga CPO

Company Reports

Dec 20, 2024

Palm Oil Weekly (13 – 19 December 2024): Avg. CPO MYR 4,847 (-4.9% WoW)

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Dec, 2024

Morning Briefs

Dec 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Economic Reports

Dec 20, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 20 December 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 19, 2024

Fed Rate Meeting: 19 December 2024

Morning Briefs

Dec 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Dec, 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 19, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 19 December 2024

Company Reports

Dec 18, 2024

SSI Surveillance: Raw Materials (11 – 17 December 2024)

Economic Reports

Dec 18, 2024

BI’s 7-Day Repo Rate: 18 December 2024

Company Reports

Dec 18, 2024

SSI Surveillance: Poultry Mid-Weekly (9-13 December 2024)

Morning Briefs

Dec 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 18 Dec, 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 17, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 18 December 2024

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 Dec, 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 16, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 17 December 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 16, 2024

Balance of Trade: 16 December 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 16, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Insights 2nd Week of December 2024

Morning Briefs

Dec 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 Dec, 2024

sawit

Company Reports

Dec 13, 2024

Palm Oil Weekly (6 – 12 December 2024): Avg. CPO MYR 5,096 (-1.9% WoW)

harga batu bara turun november

Company Reports

Dec 13, 2024

Coal Weekly (06 – 12 December 2024): Avg. USD 132.9/ton (-1.6% WoW)

harga minyak turun

Company Reports

Dec 13, 2024

Oil Weekly (06 – 12 December 2024): Avg. USD 72.5/bbl (-0.1% WoW)

Morning Briefs

Dec 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Dec, 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 13, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 13 December 2024

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 12 Dec, 2024

Morning Briefs

Dec 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat Hari Ini

Economic Reports

Dec 11, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 12 December 2024

Morning Briefs

Dec 11, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 11 Dec, 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 10, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 11 December 2024

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 10 Dec, 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 10, 2024

Samuel Daily Insights 10 December 2024

Harga Emas Turun

Company Reports

Dec 9, 2024

Gold Weekly (02-06 December 2024): Avg. USD 2,640/oz (+0.2% WoW)

harga nikel naik

Company Reports

Dec 9, 2024

Nickel Weekly (02-06 December 2024): Avg. USD 15,720/ton (-0.4% WoW)

Company Reports

Dec 9, 2024

Copper Weekly (02-06 December 2024): Avg. USD 8,954/ton (+0.7% WoW)

Economic Reports

Dec 9, 2024

Indonesia Consumer Confidence Index: 9 December 2024

Morning Briefs

Dec 9, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 9, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 09 Dec, 2024

sawit

Company Reports

Dec 6, 2024

Palm Oil Weekly (29 November – 5 December 2024): Avg. CPO MYR 5,197 (+6.5% WoW)

batu bara china

Company Reports

Dec 6, 2024

Coal Weekly (29 Nov – 05 Dec 2024): Avg. USD 135.0/ton (-3.3% WoW)

pasar minyak tertekan

Company Reports

Dec 6, 2024

Oil Weekly (29 Nov – 05 Dec 2024): Avg. USD 72.6/bbl (-1.2% WoW)

batu bara melonjak

Company Reports

Dec 6, 2024

Bumi Resources (BUMI): IDR 140 – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 170; Cons. TP: IDR 170

Tantangan Batu Bara di Akhir 2024

Company Reports

Dec 6, 2024

Coal: 9M24 Results Round-up

tekan harga tembaga

Company Reports

Dec 6, 2024

Metal Mining: 9M24 Results Round-up

pertumbuhan solid oil n gas

Company Reports

Dec 6, 2024

Oil and Gas: 9M24 Results Round-up

Economic Reports

Dec 6, 2024

Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves: 6 December 2024

Company Reports

Dec 6, 2024

Banking: 10M24 Results Round-up

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Dec, 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 6, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 6 December 2024

Morning Briefs

Dec 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Dec, 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 5 December 2024

tren harga CPO

Company Reports

Dec 4, 2024

Plantations: 9M24 Results Round-up

Company Reports

Dec 4, 2024

SSI Surveillance: Poultry Mid-Weekly (04 December 2024)

Company Reports

Dec 4, 2024

SSI Surveillance: Raw Materials (27 November – 03 December 2024)

laba bersih adro

Company Reports

Dec 4, 2024

ADRO: BUY (Maintain), TP: IDR 3,400 (from 4,200) – Renamed, Renewed, Rejuvenated

Morning Briefs

Dec 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 04 Dec, 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 3, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 4 December 2024

tren harga CPO

Company Reports

Dec 3, 2024

Nusantara Sawit Sejahtera (NSSS): IDR 276 – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 300

harga nikel naik

Company Reports

Dec 3, 2024

Nickel Weekly (25-29 November 2024): Avg. USD 15,786/ton (+1.1% WoW)

Company Reports

Dec 3, 2024

Copper Weekly (25-29 November 2024): Avg. USD 8,894/ton (-0.2% WoW)

Company Reports

Dec 3, 2024

Gold Weekly (25-29 November 2024): Avg. USD 2,635/oz (-0.8% WoW)

laba merosot

Company Reports

Dec 3, 2024

United Tractors (UNTR): 10M24 Operational Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 29,600

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 03 Dec, 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 3, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 12 December 2024

Company Reports

Dec 2, 2024

Retailers: 9M24 Results Round-up

Company Reports

Dec 2, 2024

BRMS: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 500

Economic Reports

Dec 2, 2024

Indonesia Manufacturing PMI: 2 December 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 2, 2024

Indonesia November Inflation: 2 December 2024

Economic Reports

Dec 2, 2024

Samuel Monthly Economic Insights 2 December 2024

Morning Briefs

Dec 2, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Dec 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 Dec, 2024

sawit

Company Reports

Nov 29, 2024

Palm Oil Weekly (22-29 November 2024): Avg. CPO MYR 4,889 (-2.0% WoW)

pertumbuhan solid oil n gas

Company Reports

Nov 29, 2024

Oil Weekly (22-28 November 2024): Avg. USD 73.4/bbl (+0.7% WoW)

batu bara melonjak

Company Reports

Nov 29, 2024

Coal Weekly (22- 28 November 2024): Avg. USD 139.6/ton (-2.2% WoW)

Morning Briefs

Nov 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 Nov, 2024

Economic Reports

Nov 28, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 29 November 2024

Company Reports

Nov 28, 2024

2025 Rice Ban: Potential Winners

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 28 Nov, 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Company Reports

Nov 26, 2024

NCKL: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 1,200

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Nov, 2024

Company Reports

Nov 26, 2024

4-Wheelers Auto Sales, 10M24

Company Reports

Nov 26, 2024

Automotive – Neutral – Automotive 3Q24 Round-Up

Economic Reports

Nov 25, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 26 November 2024

harga tembaga naik

Company Reports

Nov 25, 2024

Copper Weekly (18-22 November 2024): Avg. USD 8,915/ton (-1.1% WoW)

harga emas melesat

Company Reports

Nov 25, 2024

Gold Weekly (18-22 November 2024): Avg. USD 2,656/oz (+2.8% WoW)

harga nikel tertekan

Company Reports

Nov 25, 2024

Nickel Weekly (18-22 November 2024): Avg. USD 15,608/ton (-0.1% WoW)

Economic Reports

Nov 25, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Insight 25 November 2024

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Nov, 2024