Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

14 August 2023

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Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Weekly

Update Minggu Sebelumnya 7 – 13 Agustus 2023 Fundamental Global

Pandangan Kami

Kami memperkirakan pasar global masih akan diselimuti oleh sentimen negatif akibat kenaikan harga minyak sejak awal Juli, walaupun rilis data inflasi AS menunjukkan perkembangan positif

  • Kami melihat kekhawatiran pasar terhadap inflasi lebih didorong oleh faktor supply side, terutama dari sektor energi yang diakibatkan oleh pemangkasan produksi negara-negara OPEC+ dan pangan yang menghadapi ancaman gagal panen akibat El Niño.
  • Ancaman dari El Niño sudah mulai terlihat, meskipun asesmen terhadap tingkat keparahan El Niño tahun ini masih sulit untuk diprediksi.
  • Kami juga melihat kemungkinan tambahan sentimen negatif dari perekonomian Tiongkok pada minggu ini yang disebabkan oleh a) risiko perlambatan aktivitas ekonomi lebih lanjut di bulan Juli, serta b) kasus gagal bayar utang dan obligasi oleh salah satu developer terbesar Tiongkok, Country Garden.

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-08-14 (Ind)
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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-08-14 (Ind)
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