Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

08 August 2023

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Antisipasi meningkatnya optimisme investor asing

Koreksi di pasar obligasi domestik, khususnya untuk instrumen INDOGB, berlanjut kemarin (7/8). Indeks IDMA mengalami penurunan sebesar -0.1%. Sementara itu, imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB 10Y dan 2Y naik tipis masing-masing sebesar 1 dan 2 bps menjadi 6.36% dan 6.07%, yang semakin dekat dengan batas bawah masing-masing, yaitu JIBOR 1M (6.4%) dan 1W (6%). Di tengah koreksi instrumen obligasi berdenominasi Rupiah, investor asing melakukan aksi beli terhadap INDON untuk seluruh tenor. Hal ini menyebabkan yield INDON turun masing-masing sebesar -5 bps menjadi 4.98% (5Y), -7 bps menjadi 5% (10Y) dan 5.26% (2Y). Menurut kami, aksi beli ini merupakan langkah responsif investor INDON terhadap membaiknya kondisi inverted yield spread UST 10Y Vs. 2Y menjadi -67 bps tadi malam dari -108 bps pada awal bulan Agustus lalu (7/3). Kami merekomendasikan investor untuk terus memantau perubahan sentimen global yang sudah semakin positif dengan target overweight 10Y INDOGB di level yield 6.4-6.5%. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB akan terus terkoreksi di rentang 6.35-6.45%. Sementara itu, Rupiah diperkirakan terkonsolidasi dalam rentang IDR 15,100-200 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan targetkan perolehan pendanaan sebesar IDR 14tn dari lelang SUN hari ini (8./8). Menurut kami, lelang SUN hari ini dibayang-bayangi penurunan permintaan terhadap obligasi di pasar primer. Hal ini tercermin dari turunnya jumlah penawaran masuk pada lelang SUN (25/7) menjadi IDR 31tn (11/7: IDR 47.8tn) dan lelang SBSN (2/8) menjadi IDR 22.1tn (18/7: IDR 24.3tn).  kami memprediksi permintaan di lelang SUN hari ini akan berada pada kisaran IDR 28-33tn. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Presiden Fed New York John Williams mulai mengadopsi posisi kebijakan suku bunga dovish. Dalam wawancara dengan New York Times, John Williams menyatakan bahwa kenaikan suku bunga Fed kedua sebesar 25 bps di 2H23 sudah tidak dibutuhkan. Bahkan, Williams mulai mendorong para pejabat Fed untuk segera memulai siklus pemangkasan suku bunga pada awal tahun depan. Kami menyambut positif hal ini dan melihat pernyataan Williams sebagai kesempatan bagi Bank Indonesia untuk memulai pemangkasan suku bunga sejak 4Q23. (New York Times)

Domestic Economic News: Cadangan Devisa naik tipis di bulan Juli menjadi USD 137.7bn (Jun: USD 137.5bn). Nilai tersebut setara dengan 6.2 bulan impor atau 6 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang jangka pendek. Menurut estimasi kami, cadangan devisa likuid juga naik menjadi USD 124.3bn (Jun: USD 124.2bn) (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0037, FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

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