Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

10 July 2023

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Macro Strategy Weekly Two-Week Recap June 26 – July 9, 2023

  • Global stock and bond markets saw massive selling pressure over the past 2 weeks
  • There were corrections in foreign capital inflows into stock and bond markets, though the year-to-date trend has not changed amid rupiah depreciation (despite Bank Indonesia’s currency intervention)
  • The selling pressure was mainly caused by changes in market expectations of the Fed’s terminal rate hikes and rate cut cycle
  • Changes in market expectations was mainly caused by the resilience of the US economy, particularly the labor market (supported by services sector expansion)
  • Market players also expect terminal rate hikes in Europe, mainly due to slow disinflation
  • Meanwhile, monetary policy in North East Asia is expected to remain expansionary thanks to low inflation
  • Strong disinflation in ASEAN may encourage ASEAN central banks to start their rate cuts before the Fed begins its own

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-07-10 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-07-10 (Ind)

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-07-10 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-07-10 (Ind)

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