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Short-term gold volume hiccups of 5 tonnes (-11%) from PTFI accident. Following a landslide incident that resulted in mining operation suspension on 8 September 2025, PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) announced closure of its underground Grasberg Block Cave (GBC), disrupting gold purchases by ANTM amounting to 30 tonnes (66% of total 2025F volumes of 45 tonnes). Preliminary assessments indicate that the suspension will likely cut ANTM’s gold sales volume by 10 tonnes; however, we expect this volume decline to be partially offset by 5 tonnes from overseas imports. In the near term (4Q25 and 2026), the management expect gradual recovery as repair progresses with a full return to pre-incident operating levels expected by 2027. At this stage, we assume conservative gold sales volume of 40 tonnes this year, reflecting potential delays in addressing the disruption and securing alternative supplies.
Nickel to recover in 2H25 on regulatory revision and mining resumption. In 2H25, we forecast ANTM’s ferronickel (FeNi) sales volumes to rise to 11k TNi (1H25: 6k TNi), supported by recent regulatory revision that once again permits sales at LME-linked prices. In 2Q25, ANTM only sold 924 TNi of FeNi, as buyers were reluctant to purchase at HPM prices, which were higher than global benchmarks. Regarding nickel ores, operations at Gag Island are set to resume in October post temporary suspension due to environmental issues, pending redeployment of heavy equipment fleet, allowing for 2025F nickel ore sales volume of 15mn tonnes (+82.1% YoY).
BUY with higher TP of 4,600 on raised gold prices. Despite gold production disruption, we have raised our earnings (figure 13) on ANTM due to +21% revised 2025F gold prices. Note that, our sensitivity analysis (figure 14) reveals 10.6% higher net profit for every 3% increased gold prices. Our positive longer-term view is backed by upcoming projects, including Halmahera Timur RKEF (88 ktpa) slated for production in 2027, and Halmahera Timur HPAL (55 ktpa) in 2028. On valuation, ANTM is attractive on 2026F P/E of 14x, and we reiterate our BUY call with higher TP of IDR 4,600, implying 43% upside. Key risks to our call include lower-than-expected gold prices, operational delays, and other force majeures.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
