Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

02 November 2023

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Sinyal stop kenaikan suku bunga Fed Vs. Ketidakpastian politik domestik

  • Sinyal dovish yang kuat dari pidato Powell kemarin memicu aksi beli di pasar saham global.
  • Akan tetapi, IHSG tengah dibayang-bayangi ketidakpastian politik Pemilu 2024 yang dapat berkembang menjadi krisis konstitusi.
  • Hal ini tidak terlepas dari pernyataan Ketua MKMK di media massa atas kemungkinan pembatalan putusan MK atas batas usia capres-cawapres melalui keputusan MKMK.

Ketua Federal Reserve Jerome Powell mengirim sinyal dovish yang kuat kemarin (1/11). Walaupun perekonomian Amerika Serikat dibayang-bayangi pertumbuhan PDB 3Q23 yang tinggi dan kenaikan laju inflasi inti PCE bulanan menjadi 0.3% mom di bulan September (Aug: 0.12% mom), Powell lebih menekankan tren penurunan inflasi jangka panjang dan pengetatan di pasar finansial AS melalui kenaikan yield UST 30Y. Hal ini membuat pelaku pasar yakin bahwa The Fed akan menghentikan siklus kenaikan suku bunga FFR di level saat ini 5.5%, yang terlihat dari probabilita suku bunga FFR bertahan di level 5.5% pada bulan Desember sebesar 78%. Selain itu, pasar saham AS dan Eropa juga bereaksi positif dengan kenaikan indeks-indeks saham AS di rentang 0.7-1.6% dan Eropa di rentang 0.3-0.8%.

Walaupun sentimen bullish menyelimuti pasar saham global tadi malam, kondisi IHSG cenderung suram dengan penurunan indeks (-1.6)% kemarin. Menurut kami, ada dua kemungkinan penyebab IHSG turun tajam kemarin. Yang pertama adalah antisipasi kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga BI 7DRRR di bulan November. Yang kedua adalah ketidakpastian politik yang membayang-bayangi Pemilihan Presiden 2024. Walaupun ada indikasi kuat terhadap potensi kenaikan suku bunga BI 7DRRR yang tercermin dari naiknya suku bunga diskonto SRBI 12M menjadi 7.02% (Prev: 6.97%), kami menduga sentimen politik berpengaruh lebih kuat.

Menurut pemberitaan terkini, Komisi II DPR-RI telah menyetujui revisi Peraturan KPU untuk memuluskan langkah Gibran Rakabuming Raka menjadi cawapres bagi capres Prabowo Subianto. Akan tetapi, pernyataan dari Ketua Majelis Kehormatan Mahkamah Konstitusi Jimly Asshiddiqie membuka peluang dibatalkannya putusan MK terkait batas usia capres-cawapres. Apabila terjadi, maka Indonesia berpotensi mengalami krisis konstitusi. Kami bertemu dengan salah satu pemimpin redaksi media massa terkemuka untuk mendiskusikan isu ini dan menyimpulkan tidak ada kepastian bahwa putusan MK tidak bisa dibatalkan melalui keputusan MKMK.

Sector Recommendation: Food retailers, cigarettes, infrastructures, health.

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Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 2 November 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 2 November 2023 (Ind)

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Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 2 November 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 2 November 2023 (Ind)

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