Research & Stock Picks

Macro Strategy Insight

13 November 2023

By

Samuel’s Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Weekly 2023-11-13

Pandangan Kami

  • Menurut kami, rilis global sukuk yang berhasil memperoleh pendanaan USD 2bn pada pekan lalu akan membantu memperkuat posisi cadangan devisa Indonesia di level USD 130-134bn (liquid: USD 119-123bn) untuk menstabilkan pergerakan Rupiah di kisaran IDR 15,500-15,700 per USD.
  • Kami memperkirakan posisi neraca dagang Indonesia masih akan mengalami surplus USD 2.5bn di bulan Oktober dengan kontraksi ekspor -22.2% yoy dan impor -12.6% yoy.
  • Pergerakan yield 10Y dan 30Y UST cenderung stabil di rentang 4.5-4.7% dan 4.6-4.8%, dan pidato Chairman Federal Reserve Jerome Powell di IMF mengindikasikan upaya untuk menjaga kondisi di pasar finansial AS tetap ketat melalui mekanisme pasar pergerakan yield 30Y UST yang tinggi dan stabil.
  • Perhatian investor pekan ini akan tertuju pada rilis data inflasi CPI Amerika Serikat bulan Oktober yang diprediksi bertahan di 4.1% yoy untuk inflasi inti dan turun menjadi 3.3% yoy (Sep: 3.7% yoy) untuk inflasi headline, dengan kemungkinan terjadi aksi jual bila laju inflasi bulanan AS Oktober naik menjadi 0.4% mom (Cons: 0.3% mom).

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-11-11 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-11-11 (Ind)

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-11-11 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-11-11 (Ind)

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