Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

08 July 2024

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Samuel Weekly Economic Report 8 July 2024

Sorotan

  • Cadangan Devisa dan Stabilitas Rupiah: Cadangan devisa Indonesia naik ke USD 140.2 miliar pada bulan Juni (angka tertingginya sejak bulan Maret), yang akan sangat membantu dalam upaya intervensi pasar uang demi menstabilkan rupiah, meskipun penurunan PMI ke 50.7 mungkin akan menghambat pertumbuhan cadangan devisa di masa depan.
  • Sektor Manufaktur Lesu: PMI Manufaktur S&P Global Indonesia turun ke 50.7 pada bulan Juni, yang merupakan angka terendah sejak Mei 2023, di tengah meningkatnya biaya input dan depresiasi rupiah, sehingga mempengaruhi proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi.
  • Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Inflasi turun menjadi 2.51% YoY di bulan Juni, didorong oleh rendahnya permintaan, yang mungkin menghambat pencapaian target pertumbuhan PDB pemerintah sebesar 5%+ di 2024.
  • Inisiatif Investasi dan Pembangunan: Presiden Jokowi mencari investasi swasta untuk food estate, menepis kekhawatiran terkait jumlah penduduk di Nusantara, dan merencanakan penutupan sejumlah BUMN. Kemitraan energi dengan Jepang bertujuan untuk mengembangkan bisnis transportasi CO2, transportasi LNG, dan produksi hidrogen.
  • Ekspansi Otomotif dan Ritel: Sektor otomotif mendapat optimisme dengan rencana ekspansi BYD dan Hyundai, sementara perkembangan di sektor ritel mencakup masuknya Nitori Group ke Indonesia dan rencana penutupan sejumlah gerai Matahari Department Store. Pertumbuhan signifikan juga terjadi di industri kreatif.

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