Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

07 August 2024

By

Samuel Daily Economic 7 Agustus 2024

Ikhtisar

Lonjakan pengangguran di AS menimbulkan kekhawatiran terkait kemungkinan perlambatan ekonomi, yang memicu gejolak pasar yang mengingatkan pada ‘Black Monday’ tahun 1987. Perkembangan yang tidak terduga ini telah memicu spekulasi bahwa The Fed mungkin telah salah menilai situasi ekonomi, yang berpotensi memicu pemotongan suku bunga yang cepat dan drastis. Ketidakpastian ini khususnya berdampak pada sektor teknologi, yang menyebabkan aksi jual besar-besaran di pasar saham global. Bersamaan dengan itu, yen Jepang mencapai titik tertingginya terhadap dolar AS dalam tujuh bulan terakhir, yang menekan pasar saham Jepang dan menyebabkan penurunan harian terburuk indeks Nikkei sejak 1987. Ketegangan geopolitik, terutama antara Iran dan Israel, semakin memperburuk kekhawatiran global. Namun, di tengah tantangan ini, kenaikan PMI sektor jasa ISM menandakan pemulihan moderat dalam aktivitas jasa AS, yang mengimbangi kekhawatiran terkait pelemahan ekonomi. Meskipun terjadi turbulensi yang cukup parah, hal ini dipandang sebagai ‘reaksi berlebihan’, mengingat indikator ekonomi tetap relatif stabil.

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