Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

26 June 2024

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Samuel Daily Economic 26 June 2024

Ikhtisar

Pemerintah akan mengalokasikan IDR 71 triliun (USD 4.33 miliar) untuk program makan gratis untuk siswa yang diusung oleh Presiden terpilih Prabowo Subianto, dengan tujuan untuk menjaga defisit fiskal tahun 2025 di bawah ambang batas 3%, meskipun ada kekhawatiran dari dunia internasional mengenai belanja negara di masa depan. Bank Indonesia menunda penyesuaian suku bunga, dengan fokus pada intervensi pasar untuk menstabilkan rupiah di tengah defisit anggaran yang kecil (0.10% PDB) dan penurunan pendapatan negara. Sementara itu, Bank Dunia telah meningkatkan perkiraan pertumbuhan PDB tahunan Indonesia menjadi 5.1% per tahun hingga tahun 2026. Di sektor korporasi, perkembangan signifikan termasuk pembatalan investasi Eramet dan BAS sebesar USD 2.6 miliar serta ekspansi Pertamina di ladang minyak dan gas Irak. Selain itu, sektor asuransi dan Bursa Efek Indonesia mengalami pertumbuhan yang pesat, serta adanya insentif baru yang mendorong pengembangan hidrogen ramah lingkungan dan integrasi yang cermat terhadap standar transfer pricing OECD. Dari dunia politik, Indonesia bersiap untuk transisi kekuasaan sembari mengatasi ancaman keamanan siber yang serius dan ketegangan geopolitik, khususnya terkait tindakan di Laut Cina Selatan dan memajukan kolaborasi energi nuklir dengan negara-negara besar.

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