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Economic & Fixed Income

21 July 2023

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Pasar dikejutkan penurunan initial jobless claims

Pasar obligasi global mengalami aksi jual yang cukup deras semalam (20/7) akibat rilis data initial jobless claims yang turun mencapai titik terendah dalam dua bulan terakhir (lihat global economic news). Hal ini tercermin dari penurunan indeks S&P (developed market) dan EMBI (emerging market) masing-masing sebesar -0.4%. Sementari itu, imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10Y naik masing-masing sebesar 10 bps menjadi 3.85% dan 5 bps menjadi 2.49%. Akibatnya, yield spread INDOGB Vs. UST 10Y menipis 10 bps menjadi 237 bps, yang membuat investasi atas obligasi domestik menjadi kurang atraktif. Di waktu yang sama, indeks dolar AS menguat 0.6% menjadi 100.9. Menurut kami, penurunan angka initial jobless claims masih mungkin bersifat insidental karena angka continuing jobless claims naik menjadi 1.75 juta (Prev: 1.72 juta). Sehingga, ketakutan para pelaku pasar global terhadap kemungkinan masih berlanjutnya ekspansi pasar tenaga kerja AS pada bulan Juli perlu disikapi dengan lebih kritis. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y masih akan tertekan di rentang 6.2-6.3% hari ini. Rupiah juga berpeluang terdepresiasi menuju rentang IDR 15,000-15,100 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Penerbitan obligasi korporasi nasional turun 36.8% yoy menjadi IDR 46tn pada 1H23 (1H22: IDR 72.7tn). Menurut kami, penurunan ini adalah hal yang wajar karena dampak dari naiknya suku bunga global yang masih berlangsung hingga saat ini dan tingginya suku bunga acuan dalam negeri di tingkat 5.75%. Kami. (Kontan)

Global Economic News: Initial jobless claims AS turun diluar dugaan menjadi 228,000 untuk minggu yang berakhir 15 Juli (Prev: 237,000; Cons: 242,000). Penurunan ke level ini adalah yang pertama dalam dua bulan terakhir, tepatnya sejak rilis data jobless claims pada (25/5) lalu (229,000). Walaupun angka initial jobless claims turun, continuing jobless claims naik melebihi ekspektasi menjadi 1.75 juta untuk minggu yang berakhir 8 Juli (Prev: 1.72 juta: Cons: 1.73 juta). Menurut kami, ada kemungkinan turunnya initial jobless claims untuk minggu ini hanya bersifat insidental. (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: Survei perbankan BI indikasikan pertumbuhan kredit naik di 2Q23. Hal ini tercermin dari naiknya angka saldo bersih tertimbang permintaan kredit baru 2Q23 menjadi 94% (1Q23: 63.7%). Kenaikan permintaan terbesar datang dari kredit modal kerja dengan kenaikan saldo bersih tertimbang menjadi 89.5% (1Q23: 42.1%), yang disusul kredit konsumsi dengan kenaikan saldo bersih tertimgbang menjadi 85.3% (1Q23: 54.6%). Sedangkan, permintaan kredit investasi terindikasi stagnan, yang terlihat dari penurunan tipis saldo bersih tertimbang menjadi 54.4% (1Q23: 54.7%). (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0089, FR0094, PBS017, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Juli 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Juli 2023 (Eng)

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