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The upcoming US 3Q23 GDP growth data (projection: 4.2% qoq SAAR) has sparked market concerns about the possibility of another Fed rate hike in December. As a result, the probability of the said rate hike rose to 29% (Prev: 25%). In response, global market players began to sell off their bonds, which led to a spike in UST and Bund 10Y yields (13 and 6 bps to 4.95% and 2.89%) and the decline in the S&P bond index for developed markets (-0.4)% and EMBI for emerging markets (-0.2). )%. As we said earlier this week, the next two days will be crucial in determining the Fed's rate policy in December. We expect the INDOGB 10Y yield to consolidate at 7.15-7.25%, and Rupiah to consolidate at IDR 15,850-15,950 per USD.
Fixed Income News: ADMF offers bonds and sukuk with a total value of IDR 1.55tn. The instruments offered are Shelf Registration Bonds VI Phase II/2023 (IDR 1.25tn) and Shelf Registration Sukuk Mudharabah V Phase II/2023 (IDR 300bn). The instruments will be offered in three series: Series A (370-day tenor, coupon rate of 6.15% per annum [bond: IDR 834.39bn; sukuk: IDR 251.17bn]), Series B (3-year tenor, coupon rate of 6.5% per annum [bond: IDR 385.23bn; sukuk: IDR 48.73bn]), and Series C (5-year tenor, coupon rate of 6.55% per annum [bond IDR 30.37bn; sukuk: IDR 100mn]. The bond offering period will take place on November 2-3. (Emitennews)
Global Economic News: The new US House speaker is preparing to negotiate the 2024 federal budget with Biden. The Republican Party has just appointed a new House speaker, James Michael “Mike” Johnson, and he is preparing to negotiate the 2024 federal budget with the Democratic Party. The risk of political deadlock still looms over these negotiations. To avoid a ‘government shutdown’ scenario, the new speaker has prepared emergency budget extension until January 15 or April 15. (S&P)
Domestic Economic News: President Joko Widodo appointed Andi Amran Sulaiman as Minister of Agriculture. The appointment is part of an effort to fill a cabinet vacancy after previous minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo was declared a suspect by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). Previously, Amran held the same post in President Jokowi's first term. (Kompas)
Recommendation: FR0040, FR0044, FR0056, FR0077.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
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