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Global markets moved sideways yesterday (11/13), which indicates investors’ wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of US CPI inflation data for October, with a consensus estimate of 3.3% yoy (Sep: 3.7% yoy). Meanwhile, the core CPI inflation rate is expected to remain at 4.1% yoy with a monthly inflation rate of 0.3% mom. We might see another market turmoil if the monthly core inflation rate beats consensus and reach 0.4% mom or higher, which might happen considering the strong supercore inflation pressure from the services sector in the previous month. If this scenario occurs, the yield of all INDOGB tenors might go up, with a 10Y yield target of 6.9-7.1%. We project the 10Y INDOGB yield to stay between 6.85-6.95% today, while Rupiah might fluctuate between 15,600-15,700 per USD following the drop of the US dollar index (-0.2% to 105.6).
Fixed Income News: Ministry of Finance will hold a SUN auction today with an indicative target of IDR 19tn. In today's auction, the ministry will reissue the 5-year FR0101 instrument which was just launched at the previous auction (10/31), with a yield of 7.06% and a nominal value of IDR 10.5tn. We expect the government to issue IDR 18-22tn worth of new SUNs today (10/31: IDR 19.3tn), supported by the increase in demand at the October 31 auction to IDR 35.9tn (10/17: IDR 17tn). (DJPPR)
Global Economic News: ECB survey shows an increase in 1-year consumer inflation expectations in September to 4% (Aug: 3.5%). However, 3-year inflation expectations remained at 2.5%. In our opinion, the data might encourage European Central Bank (ECB) officials to consider the option of raising ECB’s benchmark interest rates until December. (European Central Bank)
Domestic Economic News: The government cancels excise taxes on plastic and sweetened beverages. The cancellation is made official with Presidential Regulation no. 75/2023, which revises Presidential Decree no. 130/2022. This decision caused the government to lose a potential source of revenue of IDR 4.1tn, which should help support the 2023 State Budget. However, the decision will benefit companies that rely on plastic packaging and F&B producers. (Kontan)
Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.
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