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■ Kami melihat investor global memasang posisi underweight terhadap Asia dalam skenario ‘higher for longer’ yang dianut oleh The Fed, ECB dan BOE hingga 2H24 dengan momentum pemangkasan suku bunga utama di 2025.
■ Kondisi ini tidak menguntungkan bagi Asia, terutama Tiongkok sebagai motor penggerak ekonomi Asia, yang didera krisis ekonomi struktural di sektor properti.
■ Ketidakjelasan arah kebijakan stimulus fiskal maupun moneter memicu terjadinya capital outflow dari Tiongkok yang menekan CNY serta pasar finansial Asia.
■ Menurut kami, arah kebijakan suku bunga BI akan dibatasi oleh arah kebijakan 'higher for longer' The Fed karena dampaknya terhadap depresiasi Rupiah dan semakin menipisnya selisih inflasi Indonesia-AS di 2024 dan 2025.
■ Depresiasi Rupiah dipicu oleh kemungkinan berlanjutnya defisit neraca berjalan akibat melemahnya harga komoditas dan keluarnya modal asing dari pasar finansial Indonesia karena persepsi investor asing yang semakin bearish terhadap emerging markets, terutama di Asia.
■ Selisih inflasi antara Amerika Serikat dan Indonesia sudah semakin menipis di tingkat headline CPI (+0.4%), tetapi masih cukup lebar pada level core CPI (+2.2%).
■ Selisih inflasi tersebut akan semakin menipis di 2025 dan berpengaruh terhadap selisih real rate of return antara AS dan Indonesia di 2025.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
