Solid Land Sales on BYD’s Entry Sparking Industrial Boom and Land Prices. SSIA has received greater inquiries for land, following BYD’s substantial purchase (108ha) in Subang Smartpolitan, 1,600-ha industrial estate township. BYD’s presence in Subang could act as a catalyst, attracting EV supply chain companies, battery producers, auto component manufacturers, and other global automakers to establish their operations within SSIA’s industrial estate. Looking back, Wuling’s acquisition of c.60 ha of industrial land from DMAS in 2015 sparked interests from other auto players, prompting Hyundai alone to purchase c.90 ha between 2019–2023. We expect a similar trend to occur at SSIA, supported by BYD’s and auto suppliers’ upcoming expansions. Conservatively, we forecast SSIA to sell 137 ha in 2025F and 145 ha in 2026F. In terms of pricing, neighboring areas like Karawang and Bekasi have seen consistent land price appreciation in the past decade (Figure 5), and we expect the same to occur with Subang, an emerging industrial hub. Thus, 2025F land prices in Subang are expected to rise 15%-20% YoY (1Q25 average price: USD 120/sqm, +50% YoY).

2026 Growth from Hotel Business and Enhanced Connectivity to Raise Prices. SSIA’s hotel business is the second biggest contributor to the gross profit in 2025F (21.6%) after industrial estate (48.8%). However, after hotel gross profit jumped +58.0% YoY in 2023, gross profit in 2024 was softer at +5.8% YoY and 2025F’s will be negative due to the renovation of Melia Bali hotel, which is expected to be completed by end-25. As a result of the renovation, Melia Bali is projected to contribute only c. 4.4% of the company’s 2025F revenue, although the figure is expexted to surge to 72.0% in 2026F, reflecting 2025-2027F CAGR of 42%. Looking ahead, a key catalyst for the company’s industrial land business is the 40km toll road linking Subang to Patimban Seaport (estimated operating date: 2026F), which will enhance connectivity and attract investors to Subang and raise land prices. Regarding the seaport, the first development phase has been achieved and will see further capacity expansion for cars from 281k to 600k and containers from 250k to 3.75mn TEUs by end-2027.

Initiating with BUY and IDR 2,000 TP (36% upside) on 60% Discount to NAV. Our positive outlook on SSIA is supported by strong land sales projections of 60-70 ha/annum in the coming years and future development of Patimban Seaport, enhancing connectivity, driving investor interest in Subang and supporting land prices in the area. Therefore, we initiate our coverage on SSIA with BUY rating and TP of IDR 2,000/share, translating to 36% upside potential and 60% discount to our RNAV. Risks to our call: execution challenges, delays in the development of Patimban Port, and regulatory changes impacting FDI inflows.