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Maintain BUY with raised TP to IDR 5,300 (1.1x 2026F PBV) on solid loan growth. In our view, BBNI’s management continues to execute well on its digital and funding strategy, value-chain lending, and SME franchise, laying the groundwork for earnings recovery as CoF trends lower and loan growth remains solid. In 2026F, management guides for loan growth of 8–10%, NIM ranging 3.5–3.8%, and CoC between 1.0–1.2%. While persistent NIM pressure and consumer asset-quality risks could pose some downside to earnings, these are balanced by upside from faster CASA accumulation, robust digital traction, and a solid risk buffer. Thus, we retain BUY rating on BBNI with higher TP of IDR 5,300, implying 1.1x 2026F PBV, 52% discount to the sector (Figure 3).
1Q26 result expectations: Net profit +1.1% QoQ, -7.5% YoY; NIM down to 3.8%. Looking ahead, we expect BBNI to book 1Q26 net profit of IDR 4.9tn (+1.1% QoQ, -7.5% YoY) on the back of low base provision in 1Q25. In 4Q25, BBNI posted consolidated net profit of IDR 4.9tn (-1.9% QoQ, -4.5% YoY), bringing FY25 bottom line to IDR 20.0tn (-6.6% YoY), broadly in line with our estimate (98.7% of FY25F) and consensus (98.4%). Quarterly performance was impacted by a sharp increase in provisioning (+54% QoQ), with CoC reaching 1.5% (1Q26: 1.1%, FY26: 1.0%) in 4Q25 (up from 1.1% in 3Q25), mainly due to overlays for Sumatra’s flood and continued caution in the retail segment. Net interest income rebounded +13.8% QoQ, supported by strong growth in loans and deposits, while NIM improved slightly to 3.9%, +30bps QoQ (FY26 NIM: 3.6%, -20bps YoY) but remained below 2024’s 4.2%. 4Q25 non-interest income also strengthened, +11.2% QoQ to IDR 7.3tn (1Q26: IDR 6.4tn, -13.4% QoQ) on higher fee-based income and recoveries, though FY25 PPOP slipped -1.9% YoY (FY26: +3.4% YoY).
Manageable liquidity in FY26 on acceleration of CASA and loan growth. We anticipate liquidity to remain manageable in 2026F (LDR: 86.5%, +100bps YoY), supported by continued deposit granularity and digital acquisition. Liquidity franchise was solidified in 4Q25, with consolidated CASA up +28.9% YoY (to IDR 726tn) and third-party funds rising +29.2% YoY, comfortably funding robust loan growth of +15.9% YoY (+10.8% QoQ). Growth was broad-based, led by strong expansions in the corporate (+20% YoY) and SME (+20% YoY) segments, alongside healthy gains in SME non-KUR (+15% YoY). Digital initiatives remained a key driver, as BNI Direct and Wondr continued to post double-digit user growth and transaction frequency (+36% YoY), supporting stable CASA ratio at 69.7% despite temporary fluctuations from gov’t liquidity placements.
Assets quality resilient; coverage buffers strengthened amid higher overlays. We forecast asset quality to remain stable in 2026 (FY26 NPL: 2.0%), amid steady underlying credit trends. Assets quality further improved, with gross NPLs declining to 1.9% (from 2.0% in 3Q25), LAR dropping sharply to 8.5% (from 10.4%), and LAR coverage rising to 47%. Management maintained a prudent stance, front-loading provisions for external shocks (notably flood-related overlays) and keeping NPL coverage robust at 205.5%. Write-offs moderated (-18% YoY), while the recovery-to-write-off ratio improved to 36.5%, reflecting successful clean-up of legacy exposures and disciplined risk management. FY25 CoC stood at 1.2%, slightly above guidance, with 2026F at 1.0–1.2% as BBNI expects more normalized credit cost amid improving macro conditions.
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