Regulatory inflection to drive COIN’s exponential user base expansion. As Indonesia’s only  listed crypto-exchange ecosystem provider, COIN is on the cusp of transformative growth phase, underpinned by the high-probability rollout of new and upcoming government regulation mandating centralized crypto trading through a national exchange infrastructure. This final regulation is still pending release with all recent government signals and policy drafts pointing to imminent enforcement—positioning the company, as the operator of CFX (Indonesia’s first and only government-sanctioned digital asset exchange), to capture significant upside from the forced migration of all licensed brokers and their end clients onto COIN’s platform. With over 30 registered crypto brokers (CPFAK) and more than 20mn retail user base, the addressable CFX market will rapidly expand as trading volumes become fully visible and compliant.

Strong earnings growth from mandated volumes and diversified fee streams. With regulatory enforcement anticipated, we see substantial acceleration in 2026-27F revenues (2024: CFX accounted for 50%+ of consolidated revenue) as all brokers are required to channel their client transactions through COIN’s infrastructure. We project that this shift will triple COIN’s revenue by 2027F reaching IDR 692bn with further upside stemming from continued expansion of ICC’s custodial business and the introduction of new digital asset products. Given the high incremental margins from effective trading fees and minimal additional costs, COIN is well positioned to experience significant cash generation and profitability boosts as trading activities scale up.

Re-rating on the cards backed by upcoming regulation and MSCI inclusion. While we initiate coverage on COIN with SPEC-BUY and TP of IDR5,500, reflecting 86% upside, the entry of Hashim Djojohadikusumo as a shareholder in COIN provides added layer of institutional credibility to our call on this stock. That said, the re-rating thesis is additionally anchored by COIN’s monopoly-like status in Indonesia’s crypto exchange infrastructure with high operating leverage and expanding addressable market. In a blue-sky scenario, COIN could re-rate toward IDR 14,500, aligned with its potential to qualify for MSCI Big Cap inclusion as revenues inflect induced by regulatory-driven user onboarding. Downside risks include regulatory reversals, system execution failures, and lower-than-expected adoption. Nevertheless, with the ruling catalyst in motion and entry of strategic shareholders, COIN offers one of the most compelling high-growth stories among Indonesia’s digital economy infrastructure plays.