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Strength
ASII’s market dominance (57% YTD market share; 9M23: 55%) has helped cushioned the 4W sales volume drop in 9M24 (ASII: -15.1% YoY; Industry: -16.2% YoY)
Weakness
In Sep-24, ASII saw -4.5% MoM decline in 4W sales volumes (industry: -4.8% MoM), as some consumers shifted to other models or brands, particularly Honda and Wuling; ASII’s LCGC market share fell to 70% in Sep-24 (Aug-24: 75%; Sep-23: 71%)
Opportunity
Potential interest rate cuts and slight improvement in economic growth from 4.9% in 2024 to 5% in 2025 may help support 4W demand; YTD market underperformance provides trading opportunities particularly since the current share price translates to 10.6% potential upside to our TP; hence, we raise our rating to Buy from Hold
Threat
Mandatory TPL insurance regulation in 2025F and higher VAT for hybrid cars may dampen overall 4W demand; stock under-performance may persist on potential downward revisions in total 4W sales, partly due to middle class’ weaker purchasing power
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
