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Macro Strategy Insight

04 December 2023

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Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Weekly 2023-12-4

Pandangan Kami:

  • Menurut kami, yield 10Y INDOGB akan tertahan di batas bawah JIBOR 1M (6.66%), sehingga arus masuk modal asing ke pasar SBN akan lebih banyak mengalir ke instrumen INDON seluruh tenor atau instrumen INDOGB tenor 2Y dan 5Y dengan batas bawah lebih rendah di JIBOR 1W (6.25%).
  • Kami melakukan revisi proyeksi inflasi untuk FY24 dan FY25 akibat tekanan inflasi pangan yang lebih kuat daripada ekspektasi kami d bulan November sebesar 7.2% yoy (SSI: 6.3% yoy).
  • Kami memperkirakan cadangan devisa Bank Indonesia di bulan November akan meningkat menjadi USD 135-137bn akibat penerbitan global sukuk senilai USD 2bn dan pelaksanaan lelang SVBN dan SuVBI yang berhasil memperolah dana senilai USD 392.6mn.
  • Pernyataan dovish pivot dari sejumlah pejabat The Fed menjadi perhatian utama pasar minggu ini.
  • Perhatian investor akan tertuju pada pengumuman data pasar tenaga kerja AS bulan November yang akan dirilis hari Jumat mendatang (8/12) dengan perkiraan non-farm payrolls meningkat menjadi 180,000 (Oct: 150,000) dan tingkat pengangguran bertahan di 3.9%..

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-12-04 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-12-04 (Ind)

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-12-04 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-12-04 (Ind)

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