Menu
3Q23 above ours and cons. BIRD booked IDR 1.1tn of revenue in 3Q23 (+8.7% QoQ, +18.4% YoY), with both its taxi and non-taxi businesses posting revenue growth. BIRD’s taxi business generated IDR 847bn in 3Q23 (+8.4% QoQ, +12.4% YoY), while its non-taxi businesses posted a rather surprising IDR 313bn (+29.4% QoQ, +50.8% YoY). The positive growth in taxi revenue was mainly driven by higher utilization rates, reaching 80% for regular taxis (vs 2Q23: 75%) and 89% for executive taxis (vs 2Q23: 90%) despite a slight drop in its ARPV, which came in at IDR 675k (-0.3% QoQ, -2.0% YoY) for regular taxis and IDR 1.5mn (-3.0% QoQ, +2.7% YoY) for executive taxis. Cumulatively, BIRD’s 9M23 figures are above ours and cons, with revenue of IDR 3.2tn (+28.7% YoY) and net profit of IDR 367bn (+41.0% YoY) (SSI: 99.0%, cons: 81.4%). Its OPM fell slightly to 11.5% (-3bps QoQ, -2bps YoY), mainly due to royalty fee (BIRD has been paying royalty fee since Aug-23, which is reflected in its other expenses that spiked to IDR 25.3bn [+192.5% QoQ, +188.4% YoY]).
Huge potential of non-taxi businesses. Following the solid performance of its non-taxi businesses, BIRD plans to develop them further, particularly Golden Bird (car rental), Citi Trans (inter-city shuttle), and Big Bird (bus chartering). As Indonesia continues to build more toll roads (government’s target: ~3,196km of toll roads by the end of 2024, +21.8% YoY), we believe that Citi Trans would benefit tremendously, as the company mainly operates via toll roads. Today, Citi Trans operates in 6 different cities (Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Malang, and Yogyakarta), and it plans to expand its network in the future. Meanwhile, Big Bird plans to penetrate the BRT (busway) system in Jakarta and soon in Bandung. With this strategy, it can secure new contracts with the government, which should help boost its income. Supported by all these factors, we project BIRD’s non-taxi revenue to increase by +10% YoY in FY24F, contributing ~28-30% of BIRD’s total revenue.
Revised FY23F and FY24F projections. Considering its strong performance in 3Q23, as well as the unexpectedly low fuel and depreciation costs, which brought the company’s net profit to IDR 367bn (99% from SSI’s FY23F estimate), we decided to revise our FY23F and FY24F projections; we now project BIRD to book a gross profit of IDR 1.3tn in FY23F (vs. prev: IDR 1.2tn) with lower fuel cost, coming in at 28% of revenue (vs. prev: 30% of revenue) and lower depreciation cost. Also, we expect BIRD to book better GPM than the previous years, supported by its capabilities to maintain a cost-efficient strategy despite the surge in OPEX (due to royalty fee).
BUY, TP IDR 2,300 (5.5x FY24F EV/EBITDA). Given the huge potential of its non-taxi businesses, we decided to upgrade our rating to BUY (from HOLD) with a TP of IDR 2,300, reflecting 5.5x EV/EBITDA FY24F. Main risks: 1) Higher fuel price. 2) tougher competition.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
