Blue Bird – (BIRD) – Not Rated
Price: IDR 1,510 – Target Price: N/A
Digital Initiatives as Means to Recovery
The recovery of urban mobility after the pandemic will benefit BIRD, since it will bring more taxi traffic. BIRD’s ARPVs had started to recover in December’20, even though only 61.2% of its fleet was in operation. In addition, BIRD has just launched its digital initiatives, ‘MyBlueBird5’ mobile app, which may help increase taxi traffic even further. At present, BIRD is trading at 0.7x P/BV; an attractive valuation.
Improved performance in 3Q20. In 9M20, revenue declined -34.8% yoy, and the company recorded a net loss of IDR -71 billion. However, things had started to improve in 3Q20. The company’s revenue rose sharply (+50.9% qoq), enabling it to record a gross profit of IDR 49 billion.
ARPV has returned to its pre-COVID level. With the potential for the recovery of urban mobility, we believe that the demand for taxi traffic will also increase. BIRD’s average revenue per vehicle (ARPV) has risen to IDR 459,000, not too far off from its pre-COVID level of IDR 574,000. At present, BIRD only operates 61.2% of its taxi fleet (~9,600 of ~16,000), meaning that its revenue may grow even higher when the whole fleet is in operation.
Increasing traffic through digital innovation. Going forward, BIRD’s strategy is to focus on digital initiatives. BIRD has just launched its mobile app ‘MyBlueBird5’, which might help to increase traffic through its ‘fixed price’ strategy and added more payment method. In addition, there is a back-end system in the form of an artificial intelligence program that makes its drivers more productive by showing “hot spots” full of potential customers.
An attractive valuation at 0.7x P/BV and 7.1x EV/EBITDA. At present, BIRD is trading at an attractive valuation of 0.7x P/BV (-1SD of its 5-year average) and at 7.1x EV/EBITDA (-0.5 SD of its 5-year average). Risks that should be considered: 1) Slower economic recovery, and 2) Surge in COVID-19 case, leading to tighter social restrictions.
Pulihnya mobilitas masyarakat pasca pandemi akan menguntungkan BIRD dengan mendapatkan traffic taxi yang lebih banyak. Hingga Desember’20, ARPV terlihat mengalami pemulihan walaupun kapasitas taxi yang beroperasi hanya 61.2%. BIRD baru saja merilis inisiasi digital ‘MyBlueBird5’ mobile apps yang berpotensi menambah volume dari traffic taxi. Saat ini BIRD diperdagangkan pada valuasi yang menarik di 0.7x P/BV.
Performa 3Q20 mulai membaik, Revenue +50.9% qoq. Revenue BIRD di 9M20 masih mencatatkan penurunan -34.8% yoy dan rugi bersih sebesar IDR -71 miliar. Namun 3Q20 sendiri sudah membaik, dimana Revenue naik +50.9% qoq dan kembali mencatatkan keuntungan di gross profit IDR 49 miliar.
ARPV kembali ke level pre-covid. Dengan adanya potensi dari aktivitas dan mobilitas yang kembali naik, kami melihat bahwa volume dari transportasi akan meningkat. Trend dari average revenue per vehicle (ARPV) kembali pulih di IDR 459k (vs. IDR 574k pre-covid level). Saat ini, jumlah armada taxi yang dioperasikan baru berjumlah ~9,600 taxi (vs. 16,000 total taxi yang dimiliki). Kedepannya masih terdapat potensi kenaikan yang cukup besar dari penggunaan taxi yang dimiliki.
Kenaikan traffic melalui inovasi digital. Strategi BIRD kedepannya adalah fokus kepada inovasi digital. BIRD baru saja merilis mobile apps ‘MyBlueBird5’. Kami melihat bahwa apps ini berpotensi meningkatkan traffic. Selain itu, terdapat sistem back-end berupa program artificial intelligent yang membuat para pengemudi akan lebih produktif dengan adanya informasi lokasi ‘hot spot’ yang ramai dengan pelanggan.
Valuasi yang menarik pada 0.7x P/BV dan 7.1x EV/EBITDA. Saat ini BIRD diperdagangkan pada valuasi yang menarik di setara dengan 0.7x P/BV dan berada di 7.1x EV/EBITDA (-0.5SD rata-rata 5 tahun). Risiko yang dapat diperhatikan: 1) Pemulihan perekonomian yang tidak berjalan dengan lancar, dan 2) Kasus Covid-19 yang kembali membuat pembatasan sosial yang ketat