Update on FY20 Results
BBTN recorded net profit growth of +665.7% yoy in FY20, a positive note after the -92.6% yoy decline recorded in FY19. Credit slightly increased by +1.7% yoy while deposits rose +23.8% yoy. The bank’s liquidity is well-maintained with a LDR of 93.2%. We maintain our BUY recommendation while raising our TP to IDR 2,100 (1.1x FY21F PBV).
Net profit growth of +665.7% yoy in FY20. BBTN recorded net profit growth of +665.7% yoy in FY20 to IDR 1.6 trillion, reaching 116% of SSI’s forecast. In 4Q20 alone, the state-owned bank recorded net profit growth of +36.9% qoq to IDR 482 billion, reversing its record in 4Q19 (net loss of IDR 592 billion). During the same quarter, BBTN’s provision expenses rose +18% qoq to IDR 663 billion. However, the figure was -49.4% yoy lower than 4Q19. For the whole FY20, the bank’s provision expenses were recorded at IDR 2.3 trillion, -35.1% yoy lower than FY19. We project BBTN to record net profit growth of +60% yoy in FY21F.
Flat net interest income of +0.5% yoy. The slight increase in interest income in 4Q20 (+ 2.1% yoy) was followed by a drop in interest costs of -2.9% yoy, causing its net interest income to increase +11.9% yoy (+4.8% qoq) to IDR 2.4 trillion during that quarter. For the whole FY20, BBTN’s interest costs fell by -3.3% yoy, surpassing the decline in interest income (-2% yoy). This enabled the bank to record net interest income growth of + 0.5% yoy to IDR 79.2 trillion, +3.3% better than our projection. However, BBTN’s NIM declined -26bps yoy to 3.06, while its PPOP rose +118.4% yoy (+ 53.3% qoq) in 4Q20 alone, and +16.9% yoy in the whole FY20. The -49.4% yoy drop in provision expenses enabled the company to record an operating profit of IDR 905 billion in 4Q20, much better than its record in 4Q19 (net loss of IDR 593 billion).
Credit growth of +1.7% yoy and deposit growth of +23.8% yoy. Credit grew by +1.7% yoy, driven mainly by subsidized mortgages (which accounts for 46.4% of BBTN’s total credit) which grew +8.6% yoy, while non-subsidized mortgages (30.7% of BBTN’s total loans) declined by -0.9% yoy. Construction loans (10.3% of BBTN’s total credit) fell -9.6% yoy, while other housing loans contracted by -9.7% yoy. Non-housing loans also dropped -3.7% yoy. Meanwhile, growth in deposits was mainly driven by growth in demand deposits (+38.2% yoy) and time deposits (+28.8% yoy), while savings dropped by -6.4% yoy. Because of this, the bank’s liquidity is well-maintained with a LDR of 93.2% (the lowest in BBTN history). BBTN’s credit quality also improved in FY20, with its gross NPL declined -19bps qoq to 4.37%. Meanwhile, its NPL coverage ratio rose + 65ppt qoq to 115% (FY19: 50%).
A 5.9% quality downgrade potential in the restructured credit. In 2020, BBTN had restructured IDR 57.5 trillion worth of credit. 69.4% of the figure came from the consumer segment, 24.2% came from the commercial segment and the remaining 6.6% from sharia financing. We project that there is a 5.9% downgrade potential in the quality of the restructured credit (lower than the previous estimate of 7-8%). 5% of the total credit in the consumer segment has downgrade potential, while in the commercial and sharia financing segments, the figure is 8%.
Updates on FY20 Results
BBTN mencatatkan kenaikan laba bersih FY20 sebesar +665.7% yoy, setelah FY19 mencatatkan penurunan tajam laba bersih sebesar -92.6% yoy. Kredit naik tipis +1.7% yoy disertai DPK yang tumbuh +23.8% yoy. Likuiditas sangat baik dengan LDR berada pada level 93.2%. Kami mempertahankan BUY dan menaikkan TP menjadi IDR 2,300 (1.1x PBV 21F).
Laba bersih FY20 naik +665.7% yoy didorong oleh penurunan biaya provisi sebesar -35.1% yoy. BBTN mencatatkan kenaikan laba bersih di FY20 sebesar +665.7% yoy menjadi IDR 1.6 triliun, lebih tinggi dari perkiraan dan mencapai 116% SSI forecast. Sedangkan laba bersih 4Q20 naik +36.9% qoq menjadi IDR 482 miliar vs rugi bersih IDR 592 miliar di 4Q19. Terlihat ada penambahan biaya provisi di 4Q20 sebesar +18% qoq menjadi IDR 663 miliar, walau turun -49.4% yoy. Secara total, biaya provisi di FY20 turun -35.1% yoy menjadi IDR 2.3 triliun. Kami memproyeksikan pertumbuhan laba bersih BBTN di FY21F sebesar +60% yoy.
Pendapatan bunga bersih di FY20 bergerak flat atau +0.5% yoy. Kenaikan tipis pendapatan bunga di 4Q20 (+2.1% yoy) diikuti dengan penurunan biaya bunga sebesar -2.9% yoy. Hal ini menyebabkan pendapatan bunga bersih di 4Q20 naik +11.9% yoy atau +4.8% qoq menjadi IDR 2.4 triliun. Untuk FY20 sendiri, beban bunga turun -3.3% yoy melebihi penurunan pendapatan bunga (-2% yoy). Akibatnya pendapatan bunga bersih di FY20 masih mampu naik tipis +0.5% yoy menjadi IDR 79.2 triliun, +3.3% lebih baik dari proyeksi kami. NIM masih turun -26bps yoy menjadi 3.06%. Disisi lain, PPOP 4Q20 naik +118.4% yoy atau +53.3% qoq, dengan FY20 naik +16.9% yoy. Penurunan biaya provisi di 4Q20 menyebabkan laba operasional di 4Q20 tercatat positif sebesar IDR 905 miliar setelah mengalami rugi bersih di 4Q19 sebesar IDR 593 miliar.
Kredit FY20 tumbuh tipis +1.7% yoy, sedangkan DPK tumbuh +23.8% yoy. Kredit tumbuh +1.7% yoy didorong oleh pertumbuhan subsidized mortgage (46.4% dari total kredit) sebesar +8.6% yoy, sedangkan non-subsidized mortgage (30.7% dari total kredit) turun -0.9%. Kredit perumahan lainnya seperti kredit konstruksi (10.3% dari total kredit) turun -9.6% yoy dan kredit perumahan lainnya turun -9.7% yoy. Untuk kredit non-perumahan, secara keseluruhan turun -3.7% yoy. Pertumbuhan DPK naik +23.8% yoy didorong oleh pertumbuhan giro sebesar +38.2% dan deposito berjangka sebesar +28.8%, sedangkan tabungan turun -6.4%. Hal ini menyebabkan likuiditas terjaga baik dengan LDR berada di level 93.2%, level terendah secara historis. Untuk kualitas kredit, gross NPL turun -19bps qoq menjadi 4.37%. Sedangkan NPL coverage ratio naik +65ppt qoq menjadi 115% (vs 50% di FY19).
Sebesar 5.9% dari total restrukturisasi kredit karena Covid-19 berpotensi turun kualitasnya. Total restrukturisasi kredit BBTN mencapai IDR 57.5 triliun hingga akhir 2020, dimana 69.4% berasal dari segmen konsumer. Sedangkan 24.2% berasal dari segmen komersial dan sisanya sebesar 6.6% berasal dari pendanaan sharia. Dari total restrukturisasi tersebut, kemungkinan 5.9% berpotensi downgrade (lebih rendah dari perkiraan sebelumnya antara 7-8%). 5% dari segmen konsumer berpotensi turun kualitas kreditnya, sedangkan untuk segmen komersial dan pendanaan sharia sekitar 8% berpotensi turun kualitasnya.