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Patimban toll road to boost land prices. SSIA’s Subang Smartpolitan will see enhanced connectivity with Patimban Seaport, located 40 km to the north, via a toll road to be completed by 2026F. Once finished, the travel time between the two facilities will be reduced by >70%, cutting the current 2-hour journey significantly and attracting investors to Subang. According to SSIA, land ASP in the industrial estate has already reached USD 120/sqm, up +50% YoY. For context, between the construction start of Trans Java toll road (2015) and its completion (2018), land ASP in Bekasi and Karawang surged +37.0% (to IDR 3.0mn/sqm) and +39.8% (to IDR 2.5mn/sqm) (Figure 1). With the completion of the Patimban toll road, we expect Subang Smartpolitan’s land ASP to jump c.30%. Additionally, the completion of Patimban Seaport Phase I-2, slated for 4Q25F, is expected to boost the port's capacity to 3.75mn TEUs (+1,400%) and 600k CBUs (+114%), further enhancing the facilities’ logistics capabilities.
Djarum’s acquisition catapulted ATVR to potential MSCI inclusion. MSCI will announce its next index review on 7 August 2025, with the changes taking effect on 27 August 2025. Our assessment suggests SSIA stands a significant chance of being added to the MSCI Small Cap Index, supported by its recent price surge (+82% MTD), partly driven by Djarum's acquisition of 5.89% of the company’s shares. The rally has lifted SSIA’s free-float market cap to USD 618mn, well above the USD 250mn threshold. Additionally, its 12M ADTV has reached USD 1.8mn/day, exceeding the required USD 1.0mn/day, and its 12M ATVR at above the 10% benchmark. It is worth noting that the inclusion of a stock in MSCI Index would enhance visibility among global investors and attract passive inflows from index-tracking funds, leading to net foreign buying reversal.
BUY with higher IDR 4,000 TP on 3 positive fundamental catalysts. Other than the potential MSCI small-cap inclusion mentioned above, our positive outlook on SSIA is driven by strong land sales projections of 60-70 ha per annum over the next few years, supported by 3 positive factors: 1. Patimban toll-road and seaport; 2. Biggest land bank; 3. Cheapest labor cost in the area. On valuation, we roll over to 2026F to better capture potential upside in land prices, resulting in higher TP of IDR 4,000, implying 38.4% upside potential. BUY. Risks: Execution challenges, delays in development of Patimban toll road and seaport, regulatory changes.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
