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31 January 2025

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SSI Surveillance: Raw Materials (22 – 28 January 2025)

Sugar prices jumped 5.9% in the last 5D, driven by downward revision in global sugar surplus expectations to 1.95mn tons (from 2.1mn tons) as both Thailand (-6.9% to 10.8mn tons) and India (-13.8% YoY) saw major cuts in their sugar production estimates. The surge in sugar prices would adversely affect MYOR>CMRY>SIDO>ULTJ>KLBF>UNVR>ICBP.

Coffee prices surged 4.6% last week, mainly due to supply concerns after Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, projected that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop will decline -4.4% YoY to three-year low of 51.81mn bags, attributed to lower-than-usual rainfall. The spike in coffee prices is likely to have the most significant impact on MYOR (13% of COGS).

Cocoa prices slipped 2.4% over the past week, due to profit-taking following the 8.6% WoW rally in the prior week. Despite the pullback, supply challenges – primarily driven by the spread of the swollen shoot virus, which makes trees more vulnerable to erratic weather - will provide strong price support. The increase in cocoa prices will impact MYOR the most (11% of COGS).

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