Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

09 September 2024

By

Samuel Weekly Economic Insights 1st Week of September 2024

Highlights

  • Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Sentuh Rekor Tertinggi: Cadangan devisa Indonesia naik ke USD 150.2 miliar, melampaui ekspektasi, yang menunjukkan kemampuan Indonesia untuk menahan guncangan eksternal, meskipun ada kekhawatiran mengingat kontributor terbesar kenaikan tersebut berasal dari pinjaman.
  • Sektor Manufaktur Terkontraksi: Sektor manufaktur Indonesia mengalami kontraksi selama dua bulan berturut-turut, yang ditunjukkan dengan turunnya PMI ke level 48.9 pada bulan Agustus. Hal ini memicu kekhawatiran ekonomi yang lebih luas, termasuk potensi PHK dan melemahnya pesanan ekspor.
  • Inflasi Turun ke 2.12%: Inflasi di Indonesia turun ke level 2.12%, yang berpotensi membuka jalan bagi penurunan suku bunga oleh Bank Indonesia. Namun, inflasi yang rendah juga menunjukkan melemahnya permintaan konsumen, terutama di tengah kekhawatiran atas menyusutnya jumlah kelas menengah.
  • Kepercayaan Investor Tetap Kuat di Tengah Spekulasi The Fed: Kepercayaan investor terhadap Indonesia tetap kuat, didorong oleh spekulasi pelonggaran kebijakan moneter The Fed AS dan fundamental ekonomi Indonesia yang solid. Situasi ini telah meningkatkan minat terhadap obligasi jangka panjang dan proyek infrastruktur.
  • Transisi Politik dan Kekhawatiran Keamanan: Perkembangan politik, termasuk transisi ke pemerintahan Presiden terpilih Prabowo Subianto, mendapat sorotan dari sejumlah kalangan. Sejumlah persiapan sedang berlangsung meski di tengah protes keras dari sejumlah kalangan. Sejumlah inisiatif keamanan, seperti pasukan keamanan siber baru, memainkan peran kunci dalam menentukkan arah kebijakan negara.

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