Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

11 December 2024

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Samuel Daily Economic Insights 12 December 2024

Ikhtisar

Perekonomian Indonesia menunjukkan ketangguhannya di tengah ketidakpastian global. Pertumbuhan ekonomi di Q4 diperkirakan akan mencapai 5.01%, didukung oleh surplus perdagangan yang sudah berlangsung 54 bulan berturut-turut. Namun, tantangan seperti turunnya pasokan dan permintaan yang lesu berpotensi menghambat pencapaian target 5%. Pemerintah akan berfokus pada revitalisasi industri dan infrastruktur untuk mencapai target pertumbuhan ekonomi 8% yang ambisius, sambil memprioritaskan belanja pendidikan dalam strategi fiskalnya. Berita lain yang cukup menarik termasuk merger senilai USD 6.5 miliar antara Axiata dan Sinar Mas dan investasi signifikan dalam energi terbarukan dan pertambangan. Penjualan ritel menguat tipis, meskipun belanja konsumen tetap rendah. Di dunia politik, selisih suara yang sempit di Pilkada dan banyaknya protes menunjukkan sentimen negatif publik yang, dan rencana untuk merelokasi ibu kota ke Nusantara pada tahun 2028 terus berlanjut. Di sektor ekonomi digital, Indonesia memperluas jaringan 5G-nya, tetapi masih kesulitan dalam menarik investasi AI. Inisiatif lingkungan mendapatkan momentum, termasuk kemitraan deforestasi senilai USD 60 juta dengan Norwegia dan target reboisasi seluas 6.5 juta hektar, meskipun proyek-proyek seperti lumbung pangan Merauke menimbulkan kekhawatiranterkair  emisi. Investasi strategis dan reformasi tata kelola sangat penting bagi negara untuk menyeimbangkan ambisi pertumbuhan dengan stabilitas jangka panjang.

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