Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

24 January 2025

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Retailers: Neutral with AMRT as Top-Pick

Strength

In 2025, we are more constructive on defensive retailers with exposures to foods and basic items given current difficult operating environment on the back of IDR weakness and elevated interest rate levels

 

Weakness

High average minimum wage increase of 6.5% YoY may hurt retailers with middle-up target market as employee costs could reach c.50% of operating expenses; IDR depreciation may hurt purchasing power

 

Opportunity

Potential rise in commodity prices  due to La Niña coupled with IDR depreciation should support future SSSG, especially outside Java, as retailers continue to expand their presence in these regions

 

Threat

Import tariffs and weaker local currency could cause higher local prices resulting in weaker SSSG; Unfavorable product mix could unfold due to consumer down trading amid weak purchasing power environment

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