Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

17 January 2025

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Oil Weekly (10 – 16 January 2025): Avg. USD 80.8/bbl (+5.5% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, Brent prices jumped +5.5% WoW (from USD 76.6/bbl), while WTI spiked +6.1% WoW (from USD 73.8/bbl). Oil prices rallied following US announcement of tougher sanctions on Russian oil, targeting Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegas, and 183 vessels linked to Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’.
  • Furthermore, US crude inventories fell -2 Mmbbl (est.: 0.99 Mmbbl) to 412.7 Mmbbl, lowest level since 2022, while gasoline supplied declined to 8.3 Mmbopd (-1.8% WoW), disrupting supply-demand dynamics and fueling price increases.
  • In FY24, average oil price reached USD 79.8/bbl (SSI: USD 80/bbl). For FY25, we set our forecast at USD 72/bbl (YTD: USD 78.4/bbl), down -10% YoY, as we anticipate sustained price pressure and potential supply increases from certain OPEC+ members. However, extended production cuts into 4Q24 and 2025 may provide some upside. MEDC remains our top pick with target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting FY25F valuation of 5.1x EV/EBITDA.

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