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09 September 2024

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Gold Weekly (09 September 2024): USD 2,500/Oz (-0.6% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 02 – 06 September 2024, average gold prices fell -0.6% WoW to USD 2,500/oz from USD 2,514/oz, while DXY index rose +0.3% WoW. Gold prices fluctuated after the US reported lower-than-expected nonfarm payroll data for August at 142,000 (forecast: 161,000). The data fuelled market optimism, as investors speculated slower job growth could lead to lower Fed rates ahead.
  • However, the DXY rose 0.3%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield increased 7 basis points to 4.28%,  dampening positive sentiment and applying pressure on gold prices. Investors remained cautious, awaiting further economic data to predict future interest rate decisions.
  • We retain our FY24 gold price estimate at USD 2,500/oz (YTD: USD 2,274/oz), and continue to favor MDKA as our top pick, with target price (TP) of IDR 3,300 based on FY24 EV/EBITDA of 12.2x.

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