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Company Reports

20 January 2025

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Copper Weekly (13 – 17 January 2025): Avg. USD 9,057/ton (+1.6% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the past 2 consecutive weeks copper prices went up gradually, averaging in the last five trading days USD 9,057/ton, up +1.6% WoW, hitting two-month high. The surge was driven by restocking efforts amid declining inventories in China, highlighted by +17.8% YoY spike in December refined copper imports to 13-month high and the drop in Shanghai inventory to 74,000 tons (from 337,000 tons in June 2024).
  • Metal prices including copper benefitted from optimism surrounding China’s aggressive economic support which was reflected in 4Q24 GDP growth of +5.4% YoY (+200bps YoY) that beat market expectations (consensus: 3.5%). Additionally, metal demand support will come from potential addition of US interest rate cuts.
  • Despite recent rallies, concerns over the China-US trade war and global economic uncertainties persist. Thus, we maintain our 12M avg. copper price forecast at USD 8,500/ton (YTD: USD 8,938/ton). Stock-wise, MDKA is our top pick with TP of IDR 1,800 (EV/EBITDA FY25: 10.9x), supported by its path to profitability and completion of the Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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